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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Wish that cold would dip down a few hundred miles and a little sooner.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png
 
It's always at the end of the run always out in fantasy land. The GEFS will make me feel better because it did have that same system
 
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That suggests Houston and much of the Gulf coast has shot at a THIRD measurable wintry event this winter. I'm educatedly guessing that if that were to actually occur that that would be a record for many along that coast. I'm assuming this map includes ZR but am not sure.
 
tractor girl said:
Wish that cold would dip down a few hundred miles and a little sooner.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png
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No chance on the cold dipping down sooner IMO. Really we need this vort to slow down. GFS looks too fast here anyway. I’ll be interested when the modeling figures out timing and/or speed of the s/w. It has yet to do that. If we get this later into Monday night, that would be ideal.


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The Euro continues to move the goal posts on the MJO pulse over the Western Pacific as I expected. The MJO amplitude is likely already above 3.5 sigma, the Australian BOM data already placed the MJO at about 3.4 sigma 2 days ago. It's safe to say the GEFS spanked the EPS in this particular case.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

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output_2KsHna.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro continues to move the goal posts on the MJO pulse over the Western Pacific as I expected. The MJO amplitude is likely already above 3.5 sigma, the Australian BOM data already placed the MJO at about 3.4 sigma 2 days ago. It's safe to say the GEFS spanked the EPS in this particular case.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

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So you're saying it's a knockout

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Storm5 said:
Man looking at the gefs members there will be no downtime the 4th-10th on this site

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Good then enjoy the present as you have five or so days of the optimist version of me before I decend to the dark corners of negativity.

#whatIdoforsnow
 
The GEFS says like or hate the pattern, it isn't going anywhere anytime soon after it sets up.

We will end up dead by spring if every week becomes like next week for a month or so.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it's pretty safe to say the GEFS took the Euro out to the shed on this one which is why I'm leaning a bit more heavily on the GEFS in the longer term for once (& one of the few times I ever will) over the EPS
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Hope it makes it to Phase 8.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it's pretty safe to say the GEFS took the Euro out to the shed on this one which is why I'm leaning a bit more heavily on the GEFS in the longer term for once (& one of the few times I ever will) over the EPS
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I just hope that the pulse doesn't die out in phase 7 as both the GFS and EURO seem to be doing to it right now.

edit: ninja'd by rain-cold...
 
Arcc said:
Good then enjoy the present as you have five or so days of the optimist version of me before I decend to the dark corners of negativity.

#whatIdoforsnow
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I'm already questioning whether I should just punt the first half of February as it looks too far away for N GA or hold out and wait and see. Things look like a bunch of cold rain at the moment, but at least the rain is better than the dry.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm already questioning whether I should just punt the first half of February as it looks too far away for N GA or hold out and wait and see. Things look like a bunch of cold rain at the moment, but at least the rain is better than the dry.
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Maybe punt the first 10 days, then it looks like there could be some magic!
 
The targeted change to cold dominating continues to be during the 2nd week in Feb as per the PNA/AO/MJO though today's GEFS AO day 14 forecast is less -AO.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm already questioning whether I should just punt the first half of February as it looks too far away for N GA or hold out and wait and see. Things look like a bunch of cold rain at the moment, but at least the rain is better than the dry.
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Punt the first 10 days. But a new rule is in place , if you punt your blocked for those days . Which means when this place is popping middle of next week you won t be able to post

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packfan98 said:
Maybe punt the first 10 days, then it looks like there could be some magic!
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Hopefully. However, I have that feeling that I have had all the snow I can this year, having 3 measurable events. A fourth would be great, but I don't think 4 snowfalls up here is all that common. It's likely extremely rare in my opinion.
 
GaWx said:
That suggests Houston and much of the Gulf coast has shot at a THIRD measurable wintry event this winter. I'm educatedly guessing that if that were to actually occur that that would be a record for many along that coast. I'm assuming this map includes ZR but am not sure.
Click to expand...
Looks like it may suggest a classic Southeast snowstorm as well. I'm just sayin.
 
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