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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Rain Cold said:
Also, one critically important element to keep in mind...the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is just north of the border. There are a lot of ways to bring that down. It's sooooo much easier to get cold when you don't have to wait for our source region to recharge. It can happen quickly. So, you can be 70 F one day and 48 hours later, you're in the 20s. No reason at all to worry today.
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70 one day, and snowing 6 days later. That's what happened with the last storm. And I think when we have a lot of up and down in winter that's when we get better shots at good storms here in NC. We don't want it warm, but we don't wan't it bitter cold for a long time, either.
 
Question looking at the 12z GFS I know it's over way over 5 days out but by looking at the track of that storm and how from one hour span to the next it seems like it gets most of north middle Georgia and middle Georgia in snow but the accumulations don't reflect that same with Alabama. I would think it at least would want put a dusting over north Georgia with that swing around
 
Clayton Reid said:
I am trying to add to the discussion, but I honestly don't see anything that cold or interesting. I keep hearing delayed but not denied, but I just don't want it to be wasted. I mean what happens if you spent all this time discussing freezing February, and it's really not even looking like it'll be freezing or get close to it if we are lucky based on current trends. It's really hard to just ignore the model guidance when they keep screaming ridge, and the GFS has a big cold bias.
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If you’d have told me back in November that the pattern for February would look like it does now I’d be more then happy. It looks like plenty of energy and cold shots in the medium/long range. It may or may not yield snow but the pattern certainly doesn’t look so bad that you should be as negative as you are being.
 
Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP dates in February
(16 storms): pretty well spread out except a little quiet Feb. 2-5:

2/1, 2/6, 2/6-7, 2/9-10, 2/9-10, 2/10-11, 2/11-13, 2/14, 2/15-6, 2/17-8, 2/18-9, 2/21-2, 2/25-6, 2/26, 2/26-7, 2/28,
 
Well last night I said if the euro would start showing snow like the gfs is Then I would get more interested. Well I’m interested now.

12z euro
847e7fd38851360c1aff04b6b1ab4b6e.jpg


12z gfs
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Obviously it’s still a ways out but you now have the gfs, euro and Canadian showing snow for northern Tennessee next weekend. Maybe this ends up as one of those storms we were talking about earlier that shows up more then 5 days out and ends up verifying. Still I’ll hold off on any excitement and see if this storm is still here at the end of this weekend.


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Falls posted this on the other board. ICON: The eastern NC is probably from Monday nightish, but western NC is Fri into Sat.

pppp.thumb.png.8f32988dc045904ae11178d2ec816045.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Falls posted this on the other board. ICON: The eastern NC is probably from Monday nightish, but western NC is Fri into Sat.

pppp.thumb.png.8f32988dc045904ae11178d2ec816045.png
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So it's saying 2 inches here for Monday/Tuesday? If so, could be legit since it first popped up less than 5 days out. GFS was showing snow for eastern NC, too.

Went ahead and started a thread for it.
 
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One little monkey wrench for a great back half to February is the tropospheric polar vortex is so large and needs something to shove it south. The GEFS has the -AO cranking but the EPS doesn’t and is warmer for the southeast.

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Never any guarantees with weather, but the upcoming period looks much, much more promising than some of the tremendously butt ugly awful patterns that we've seen the last few winters.
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Yeah, the cold is coming a bit later than I think many came to believe thus some disappointment. Plus the models don't really go out to past mid February so it's not in sight yet. But we have some solid reasons to believe that around mid February we'll have an artic airmass in our vicinity and a woke STJ for a prolonged period of time. The details of, how close is the cold, when does it get here, where the storms go....are way out there still. But just those two ingredients put together is a nice reason for a bit of excitement...especially since many of us have already seen snow this winter.
 
The CPC look over "Normal" is not bad; and it does look good for the Upper South. These Friday maps have human input, correct?
 
IMG_0882.PNG

The warm blob is a little overrated, atmospheric processess are often of comparable importance and were largely ignored or glossed over by those in the media, etc
 
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