• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Hi Spring:
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
 
It's amazing watching the models trying to figure out the represcussions of the very stout ridging on the west coast.

Looking at the GFS over the next week or so, it sure does look like what the GFS showed a week or two in late December/early January before the parade of storms hit.
 
Last edited:
There must have been one ensemble member that went bananas to give this look on the 6z GEFS mean:
snod.conus.png
 
Watching the potential Monday event. Temp issues even for RDU so doesn’t look like a greater SE event. But if it can trend into overnight Monday into Tues we would be in business. Should be an interesting few days if model runs...couple of tweets of my thoughts:






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Dusting-0.5" of snow was reported over parts of the NWS RAH CWA this morning esp back over the western piedmont and the Triad. Not sure how much fell here in the Triangle
 
Kylo said:
Surprising to see the EPS with wanting to build a southeastern ridge only to have more of a trough as it gets closer. This is inside day 10. View attachment 3592
Click to expand...

This is why I got bent out of shape when some were buying into this ridge extending from the NE Pacific to Europe and torching the entire US, that probably wasn't going to verify and even if it did, it wouldn't last long. Definitely entertaining to watch the SE US ridge evaporate on the EPS as we approach the medium range, another one is already biting the dust at 192 hr.
Unknown.gif
 
metwannabe said:
That's significant right there.... but I shall refrain from getting too excited but honestly I'd take the GEFS over the EPS right now the way things have played out this winter
Click to expand...

The GEFS has been clutch w/ this MJO pulse the last week or so and has been spanking the EPS as expected in phase 5. The more realistic MJO forecast from the GEFS and the fact that the EPS has problems w/ orographic forcing from the Rockies I'd definitely side w/ the GEFS here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is why I got bent out of shape when some were buying into this ridge extending from the NE Pacific to Europe and torching the entire US, that probably wasn't going to verify and even if it did, it wouldn't last long. Definitely entertaining to watch the SE US ridge evaporate on the EPS as we approach the medium range, another one is already biting the dust at 192 hr.
View attachment 3593
Click to expand...

You buying the easterlies fading out? Does this potentially mean nina won’t have as much influence on pattern into February?
 

Attachments

  • 88F5979F-FD4A-4A65-A4FF-BABDF898A6D8.gif
    88F5979F-FD4A-4A65-A4FF-BABDF898A6D8.gif
    198.1 KB · Views: 19
Kylo said:
You buying the easterlies fading out? Does this potentially mean nina won’t have as much influence on pattern into February?
Click to expand...

It takes several weeks for the atmosphere to respond to large-scale changes in the ocean attributable to WWBs and the oceanic kelvin waves generated from them. We'll definitely begin to feel the impacts as we get deep into March & April especially if this downwelling kelvin wave is strong enough to completely shut-off the upwelling in the EP. It couldn't happen at a much better time in the seasonal cycle, the MJO's envelope of WWBs in its wake are most axisymmetric wrt the equator at this time of the year in/around February-March and the bjerknes feedback and zonal SST gradients are weakest, which makes the Eq Pacific most susceptible and/or receptive to high frequency variability.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is why I got bent out of shape when some were buying into this ridge extending from the NE Pacific to Europe and torching the entire US, that probably wasn't going to verify and even if it did, it wouldn't last long. Definitely entertaining to watch the SE US ridge evaporate on the EPS as we approach the medium range, another one is already biting the dust at 192 hr.
View attachment 3593
Click to expand...

This view seems to indicate a true PV split may be coming as we head towards mid month. Interesting


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
image.png Y'alls hero! Glad the NE is gonna do ok!
 
SD said:
I really want to go all in for the next 2-3 weeks.
Click to expand...

I really want to go all in....in 2 weeks, for about 2-3 weeks. Mid February looks pretty sweet if we can get the GEFS to verify and the EPS to get its act together.
 
SASQUATCH said:
This view seems to indicate a true PV split may be coming as we head towards mid month. Interesting


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Storm5 said:
I feel like he's been chasing a true split for years .....
2cf52606a3bc1686a81d4fb46b91e0a6.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Judah must have read my post. :rolleyes::D
 
The western ridge is nice, but the vortex seems to be too wound up to allow shots of very cold air to drop into the SE over the medium range, especially since there's no blocking in and around Greenland/eastern Canada. This says to me that the interior parts of the upper would be favored over the next couple of weeks over the lower or coastal sections. These may be marginal events. But at least we're not torching, and we will have things to track. And it may be just cold enough. Have to wait and see.
 
Rain Cold said:
The western ridge is nice, but the vortex seems to be too wound up to allow shots of very cold air to drop into the SE over the medium range, especially since there's no blocking in and around Greenland/eastern Canada. This says to me that the interior parts of the upper would be favored over the next couple of weeks over the lower or coastal sections. These may be marginal events. But at least we're not torching, and we will have things to track. And it may be just cold enough. Have to wait and see.
Click to expand...
Looks like some rain cold to me, I mean cold rain
 
Yep, wouldn't bet the farm on what either model is currently showing, probably be a blend between the 2. I would expect the North to stay cold for the most part but the colds shots into the Southeast will be tempered with warmer periods especially the further South you get.
 
Rain Cold said:
The western ridge is nice, but the vortex seems to be too wound up to allow shots of very cold air to drop into the SE over the medium range, especially since there's no blocking in and around Greenland/eastern Canada. This says to me that the interior parts of the upper would be favored over the next couple of weeks over the lower or coastal sections. These may be marginal events. But at least we're not torching, and we will have things to track. And it may be just cold enough. Have to wait and see.
Click to expand...
Guess more than just the SE ridge can screw us up. If GFS starts backing off the cold, it would be a disaster
 
12z GFS backs the trough too far west for the SE to score next week. BOO!!! Let's see what happens on the ensembles and future runs...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top