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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

From everything I have read, it looks more positive than not headed into February for more snow chances.
 
Rain Cold said:
For what it's worth, I for one am happy for the opposite point of view or to hear about why it might be warm. But I guess if we're going to have a legit discussion about the pattern, we need to define what is making us believe a certain pattern is going to emerge/not emerge and then back that up with something other than feelings.
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Sure, it's actually , The GFS, CMC, and Euro along with their ensembles after about February 2-4, they aren't really dipping the cold down and keep it hung up. Just ridge for days.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Sure, it's actually , The GFS, CMC, and Euro along with their ensembles after about February 2-4, they aren't really dipping the cold down and keep it hung up. Just ridge for days.
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Be patient, The indices suggest as per post I just did that it will come and maybe very intensely/lengthy starting ~2nd week of Feb.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Sure, it's actually , The GFS, CMC, and Euro along with their ensembles after about February 2-4, they aren't really dipping the cold down and keep it hung up. Just ridge for days.
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Post the map you're looking at, if you don't mind.
 
This doesn't look too warm:
GFS.png
 
Can't see the temps here, but looking at surface features, I can't say this screams torch either. Certainly not sustained SE ridge:

Euro.png
 
Man the gfs and Euro are worlds apart next week with the wave along the front . The gfs has a massive Ohio valley winter storm the euro, not so much

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12z EURO looking pretty good through 192hr really like how the Eastern Pacific is shaping up... Need that trough near Hawaii to maybe tick farther S would be best case and the ridge beginning to pump up closer to the CONUS
 
The ridge actually does return after that massive storm (the GFS may be wrong though) but considering what I've been reading on here and what we saw in December, I'm in a wait and see mode.

I don't really know if I want to see it obliterated again though.
 

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Clayton Reid said:
Well based on TT, the 540 line is way up, which I thought suggest a ridge, and it rains all the way up near Chicago or into Kentucky in the models runs even with that look after February 4th.
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Are you talking about the red line on this map at 240?
Euro.jpg
 
Larry already laid down the law. Early Feb may be transitive, but that's not what I'm looking at, I'm looking at 2/10-2/12 and beyond. Let's wait and see how things turn out after the wave that may or may not be a major OV storm passes.
 
Rain Cold said:
Are you talking about the red line on this map at 240?
View attachment 3480
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That is not the rain/snow line. That is the 540mb height level. CR, I think you're thinking of thickness and possibly conflating that with height. Anywho, the map is Feb 5. I don't think the general expectation is for a sustained cold pattern to lock in by 2/5. What you'll see is that you have sort of an ebb and flow...colder and warmer. The pattern is fairly progressive. As I said earlier, that doesn't mean you still can't get a storm.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
12z EURO looking pretty good through 192hr really like how the Eastern Pacific is shaping up... Need that trough near Hawaii to maybe tick farther S would be best case and the ridge beginning to pump up closer to the CONUS
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It's headed for a huge cold shot towards the end of the run that's spreading SE from the plains

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Well Clayton; you know ridging isn't always a bad thing. In fact, slightly higher heights can give you a storm while very very low heights will send it to Cuba.
 
Also, one critically important element to keep in mind...the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is just north of the border. There are a lot of ways to bring that down. It's sooooo much easier to get cold when you don't have to wait for our source region to recharge. It can happen quickly. So, you can be 70 F one day and 48 hours later, you're in the 20s. No reason at all to worry today.
 
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