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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

While fun to look at, operational models start to drastically lose accuracy after 4-5 days. This is a case of the obvious ridge continually showing up, and kicking the colder air can down the road into late February, into March.

I'm no longer seeing any signs of a week 1-3 winter Storm for the deep South (I-20, south).
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's more that the GFS is really bad beyond truncation and each hour you go beyond it, the larger the error. I just look at beyond 240 for major H5 trends or laughs. So far, there is nothing noticeable in terms of trends, only flip flopping.
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The GFS is bad in the extended but the GEFS is solid. It has been sliding the ridge in the west to +PNA position around Feb 7-8. It has done this several runs in a row now. The 12z run of the Canadian Enembles support this too.
 
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Michael21 said:
The 12Z GEM model didn't look as good as it develops a negative PNA towards the end of the run with riding developing in the south.View attachment 3517 View attachment 3518 View attachment 3519
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Completely fine with me. I think you missed my point. I expect the pattern to develop eventually close to what the 00z GEM showed and looking at ANY operational model right now for that period is completely useless.


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whatalife said:
The 12z EPS continue the trend of looking colder post day 10.


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That's the early part of the 1st week of February ... 'Twas that way in 1899 ... but that is as far as I'll go in an analogy ... ;)
However, can you imagine what this board would have looked like if we were alive and there was internet then ... late Jan, early Feb 1899 AN and a possible snow coming ... LOL ... :eek:
 

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pcbjr said:
That's the early part of the 1st week of February ... 'Twas that way in 1899 ... but that is as far as I'll go in an analogy ... ;)
However, can you imagine what this board would have looked like if we were alive and there was internet then ... late Jan, early Feb 1899 AN and a possible snow coming ... LOL ... :eek:
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Nice. Thanks Phil.


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with no human input today, this is just due to the models not seeing the cold plunge through the southeast yet..looks about the same on the 8-14 day also. Will be interesting to see how it looks Monday when humans make it
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Jon said:
Completely fine with me. I think you missed my point. I expect the pattern to develop eventually close to what the 00z GEM showed and looking at ANY operational model right now for that period is completely useless.


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Correct me if I'm wrong, but about 7-10 days from the January arctic blast, a lot of the op runs were showing horrible runs with dominant SE ridge, but about once or twice a cycle, they would show a blockbuster cold shot!? Most of these model runs are just showing SE ridge and cold not making it to the SE?
 
We must remember that to say this is a La Nina so..... is WAY too broad a brush to paint on the weather. A strong La Nina would argue strongly for a warm and dry winter. This winter has been anything but that. A weak La Nina (which this is) can produce a variety of outcomes. One being cold and snowy (which we have seen). To have an expectation for February based on "this is a La Nina" is likely to be about as accurate as a coin flip.
Another thing to beware of is relying too heavily on one index. MJO looks to get in favorable position for us in February, but I have seen many winter expectations for winter weather based strongly a favorable MJO outlook crash and burn. My confidence in a solid February is based on a combination of strong signals for -EPO, +PNA, -AO as we head into February. That combined with the MJO outlook and the likelihood of there being a ton of artic air on our side of the globe has me very optimistic for us to see more cold and snow before the winter is over.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but about 7-10 days from the January arctic blast, a lot of the op runs were showing horrible runs with dominant SE ridge, but about once or twice a cycle, they would show a blockbuster cold shot!? Most of these model runs are just showing SE ridge and cold not making it to the SE?
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Another problem is people are using the 500mb anomaly charts and assuming red is ridging when in actuality it isnt.
 
Just broad brushing it (comparing the actual ridge/trough maps), the Happy Hour run looks a bit better ridge wise.
 
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