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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Storm5 said:
Here comes the arctic lol
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That's a much better look with a taller ridge and deeper air.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The NAM seems to like the idea of ZR on the 4th. Looks earlier than that failed glaze event too, coming in well before the sun rises. Have to watch it and see if it changes or not.
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I thought it was originally seeing more sleet than ZR? Or was that the CMC?
 
Akin to the idea that the GFS is always too amplified with the MJO (which we now know to be very untrue), I still really don't understand the whole premise behind the notion that a weaker MJO automatically favors more cold in the SE US. The data from a few observation sites or one region might support that but it sounds fishy and like another pet theory without there being a plausible physical explanation to accompany it as well as confirmation with other indices, and assurance that there isn't sampling issues because there definitely is.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It could be either or a transition from sleet to ZR. If there is enough sleet that falls to cool the surface, there could be issues, or not because it can transition to all rain.
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Yeah I would be surprised if we got much of anything. Hoping the Euro is right with the token flakes tomorrow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Akin to the idea that the GFS is always too amplified with the MJO (which we now know to be very untrue), I still really don't understand the whole premise behind the notion that a weaker MJO automatically favors more cold in the SE US. The data from a few observation sites or one region might support that but it sounds fishy and like another pet theory without there being a plausible physical explanation to accompany it as well as confirmation with other indices, and assurance that there isn't sampling issues because there definitely is.
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It may, in fact, be true. But the lack of understanding the reason why it might be true opens the idea up to coincidence. GaWx has done a lot of statistical analysis work through the years, and it's been pretty comprehensive. It's hard to argue with that. But it would be nice to understand that if out of X amount of total observations, COD Phase 8 is the coldest for a location or a handful of locations, why that is the case. Because that is critical to being able to consider the conclusion as a long-term reliable resource.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What does it means for the Southeast if it goes to 8? What is colder 7 or 8
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Here's the January through March composites for the mjo. But as Larry said below, there are other factors...but phase 8-2 generally are what we want to get in a western ridge eastern trough pattern. Maybe 3 would work too in February....
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SnowNiner said:
Here's the January through March composites for the mjo. But as Larry said below, there are other factors...but phase 8-2 generally are what we want to get in a western ridge eastern trough pattern. Maybe 3 would work too in February....
View attachment 3676
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The image proves your point. We're pretty much in Phase 7 now, and if you look at projected anomalies for the next 8ish days or so, it'll likely show the opposite of the chart.

There has been so much talk about the MJO over the last several years that I think the waters have been muddied. For instance, there is an MJO phase 7 winter composite chart. There's an MJO phase 7 February chart (which is different from the December MJO phase 7 chart). There's an MJO phase 7 February Nina chart (which is different from the MJO phase 7 Nino chart). There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina -QBO chart. There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina - QBO low solar fast ozone quarter pounder no pickles extra farts chart. All of these iterations almost makes these charts useless on their own. I *think* it's best to look at a general Feb phase 7 chart and then weight it against other things (pattern influencers) at play. There's no silver bullet...except maybe the Royale with Cheese. :)
 
So...while we're waiting on the mjo to trend to save us...there's some chatter about a PV split and warming. I know there's been a bit of discussion but is this an actual real one this time, or is it the yearly unicorn we chase?
 
Rain Cold said:
The image proves your point. We're pretty much in Phase 7 now, and if you look at projected anomalies for the next 8ish days or so, it'll likely show the opposite of the chart.

There has been so much talk about the MJO over the last several years that I think the waters have been muddied. For instance, there is an MJO phase 7 winter composite chart. There's an MJO phase 7 February chart (which is different from the December MJO phase 7 chart). There's an MJO phase 7 February Nina chart (which is different from the MJO phase 7 Nino chart). There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina -QBO chart. There's probably an MJO phase 7 February Nina - QBO low solar fast ozone quarter pounder no pickles extra farts chart. All of these iterations almost makes these charts useless on their own. I *think* it's best to look at a general Feb phase 7 chart and then weight it against other things (pattern influencers) at play. There's no silver bullet...except maybe the Royale with Cheese. :)
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Definitely there's no silver bullet (and I know not of what sandwich you speak of) but I'm just trying to rule things out by process of elimination. You have the teleconnections show pretty favorable to get the trough east and to at least allow the cold to bleed south east. You would think. -AO/+PNA. -EPO hangs on I think too. Yet residual ridging and warmth hangs on in the conus in the ensembles, I don't know why. What's missing may be the cooler mjo phases and it just seems that's the missing piece of the puzzle and what we need to line up right. It's probably an over simplification but my guess would be when tropical forcing moves to the right place, our ridges and troughs would too on long range ensemble models. I'm not really a big MJO guy, I've seen winters when I thought it was overrated. But with everything else being even...the fly in the ointment seems to be the MJO. At least currently. And again, focusing on the long range...mid February.

upload_2018-2-1_13-45-59.png
upload_2018-2-1_13-46-50.png
 
For those of us that work in companies where the IT group has been told to block outside pics, youtube, tweets, etc. can you show us what DT said. Thanks. I miss a lot when people post attachments.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Akin to the idea that the GFS is always too amplified with the MJO (which we now know to be very untrue), I still really don't understand the whole premise behind the notion that a weaker MJO automatically favors more cold in the SE US. The data from a few observation sites or one region might support that but it sounds fishy and like another pet theory without there being a plausible physical explanation to accompany it as well as confirmation with other indices, and assurance that there isn't sampling issues because there definitely is.
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It doesn't automatically do anything. It is just a tendency i found when averaging out many days of data in January all the way back to 1975.

Very knowledgeable MDA mets have agreed with this tendency at least for this winter. They weren't specifically talking about SE US but rather E US as a whole. Their explanation: stronger MJO means stronger forcing from the tropics. Tropics are warm. Sort of like a strong El Nino I guess.

Also, Alan Huffman has charts that show that lower amp has clearly averaged colder all phases in Jan and almost all in Dec. Admittedly, that distinction is not strong in Feb for whatever reason.
 
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Parker said:
I will be keeping yall posted from the mountains in Gatlinburg! We will be leaving around lunch today and should get there around 6 tonight. Really hoping that being 2800 feet up will help with some better snowfall. I'll be happy with 1-2 inches. I will post pics!
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Yes keep us updated. The models have definitely trended more favorably in the last 24 hours for a little snow in north eastern Tennessee. For me anything from a dusting or more will be considered a win.
 
GaWx said:
It doesn't automatically do anything. It is just a tendency i found when averaging out many days of data in January all the way back to 1975.

Very knowledgeable MDA mets have agreed with this tendency at least for this winter. They weren't specifically talking about SE US but rather E US as a whole. Their explanation: stronger MJO means stronger forcing from the tropics. Tropics are warm. Sort of like a strong El Nino I guess.

Also, Alan Huffman has charts that show that lower amp has clearly averaged colder all phases in Jan and almost all in Dec. Admittedly, that distinction is not strong in Feb for whatever reason.
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It's not sort of like a strong El Niño? What lol that doesn't make any sense at all, all the MJO does is simply rearrange the mid latitude wave pattern, you can literally come up with just about any configuration although a semblance to NINO is one of them but strong NINO configurations actually favor near to below normal temps here esp at this time of the year in mid-late winter. Simply rearranging the pattern more due to heightened tropical forcing would lead to more variability not higher temps overall, like I said you actually need to come up with a plausible physical mechanism and these results have to be reproducible in other indices and explain intricacies like what happens in Feb when in fact the MJO is more amplified on average compared to Dec and Jan. This would actually suggest if indeed the higher MJO amplitude and temp relationship was real and dominant we'd actually see even more impressive anomalies on Feb when the MJO is strong more often, but that' not the case, so there's a lot of inconsistencies here. These are also the same mets who discounted the GFS's MJO forecast because it was usually overzealous with MJO amplitude and we know how that worked out. There's a lot more to this than meets the eye
 
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Wulfer said:
KCHA (Chattanooga) got nada, the last snow stopped at Mont Eagle mountain.
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I had someone on another forum from Athens, TN arguing the fact that we were getting snow in Chattanooga from the last event but it wasn't showing up on radar due to area radar being down. I explained that I knew the radar was down but that didn't change the fact that it wasn't snowing. He actually got pissed off and wanted to argue that it was snowing at my house in Ooltewah even though I told him there was nothing falling from the sky. We have measured a total of a slight dusting on the windshield the entire season.
 
Rain Cold said:
It may, in fact, be true. But the lack of understanding the reason why it might be true opens the idea up to coincidence. GaWx has done a lot of statistical analysis work through the years, and it's been pretty comprehensive. It's hard to argue with that. But it would be nice to understand that if out of X amount of total observations, COD Phase 8 is the coldest for a location or a handful of locations, why that is the case. Because that is critical to being able to consider the conclusion as a long-term reliable resource.
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It may in fact be an artifact of the data I could contrive any relationship between any two variables or come up with some fancy statistics but it doesn't mean a whole lot unless there's some sort of significance test (student t-test, chi-square, etc. all of these are easy to find online), etc and a physical explanation to accompany it, verification in real-time and in actual published literature would not hurt either. It's certainly possible there is indeed a physical linkage here or there could be a plethora of lurking variables that mold this into mere passive happenstance. When I explained the biases in the GFS, Euro, and JMA models wrt the MJO I made sure to provide stipulations regarding their convective parameterization schemes, background changes, etc. because that helps understand where the issues originate or if it's just random chance, and allows for easier diagnosis and a solution to the problem instead of just throwing some fancy numbers at you
 
18Z Nam continues with on set of zr in CAD region early Sunday morning...right now looks like minor threat with In-Situ cad in place and change to rain as cad signature erodes but worth watching especially if can get an earlier onset of precip.
 
ForsythSnow said:
18Z ICON is looking better. A little colder and snow is a bit further south. Low also tracks south of 12Z. Something had to give on either the GFS or the ICON.
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Yea on weather.us significant weather maps looks like decent hit in NE ga with icon...though I don't think it's done well this year imo.
 
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