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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

BPATL said:
GREAT, so now we are at the proverbial 15 day out hogwash....
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LOL! For the most part it’s always been about the 2nd week of February. Actually the 6z GEFS brings the pattern change in a little sooner then the 2nd week of February.


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whatalife said:
LOL! For the most part it’s always been about the 2nd week of February. Actually the 6z GEFS brings the pattern change in a little sooner then the 2nd week of February.


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After day 9 it seems good right?

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_9.png
 
Storm5 said:
Man, the EPS keeps correcting to a much colder pattern.

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Yeah I noticed on 1/26 the GEFS was making a run with the 06z runs now the EPS is following suit. Very predictable IMO giving predicted pattern forcers. Hold on tight. I’m interested to see what kind of analogs the CPC throws up with their update today.




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As others have mentioned, the 2nd week in Feb remains the time when it would most likely get cold in the SE for a sustained period despite the GEFS insisting that the NAO will by then be quite solidly positive at +1+. The entire winter has had a mainly +NAO, meaning a -NAO hasn't been needed to make it cold and produce any of the 3 winter storms. This is still
another real life example that the -NAO is overrated as far as it being crucial, especially when other indices are favorable.

The GEFS AO prog continues to be for sub -1 in the 2nd week of Feb even after adjusting for its bias of -0.5 to -0.75. Its PNA prog for then is near a solid +1.

Regarding the MJO, today's EPS prog is for an even stronger peak of nearly 3 while in phase 7 (vs 2.5 3 days ago) but still nowhere near the ridiculous 4.2 peak GEFS had 3 days ago. Here's the key as I see it: that phase 7 peak is on 2/1 and it falls substantially from there to a more favorable 2.0 at the start of the 2nd week of Feb. It then slows and drops to an even more favorable 1.75 as it just enters phase 8 on 2/10-1. Then it is poised to move very slowly and probably weaken further, which are both good for cold chances.

In summary, the teleconnections other than the NAO remain as they've been for several days favorable for sustained/intense SE cold starting at some point in the 2nd week of Feb.
 
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Storm5 said:
Man, the EPS keeps correcting to a much colder pattern.

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Click to expand...
Jon said:
Yeah I noticed on 1/26 the GEFS was making a run with the 06z runs now the EPS is following suit. Very predictable IMO giving predicted pattern forcers. Hold on tight. I’m interested to see what kind of analogs the CPC throws up with their update today.




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Click to expand...

The orographic forcing and gravity wave drag in the model quite frankly suck and are way underdone especially when there's fast flow over the Rockies (I.e. a big trough to the north or NE), this is why it loves to hug troughs there. The more intense gravity wave drag vs the model forecasts causes the flow to slow down which amplifies the quasi stationary planetary wave configuration ultimately raising the heights over top the Rockies and increasing the -AO (sometimes the impact of gravity wave drag issues in the Euro over the Rockies are negligible when the flow is much slower (huge ridge over the Rockies, bias often less prevalent) or other errors in the model like it's convective parameterization play a larger role in the forecast, etc.) During the summer the Euro struggles with high level heat sources and loves to stick ridges over major mountain ranges like the Rockies when reality often argues otherwise
 
A few more tends South and I'll get some flurries out of the 2nd/3rd event!
 
image.png This seems promising.....Larry Cosgrove! :):weenie:
 
It's too far out, so I'm not sure why I'm going to do this, but here goes, if we actually want there to be a nice storm, there needs to be separation between waves I think. I said I was being lazy yesterday but I was watching the H5 on 0z and on there it was a wave undercutting a NS wave. It's a nice look, but since we're out there, we can't hug that look.
 
There are some better folks on here that look at the big picture than some mets. They take the ensemble mean or snowfall maps literally and don't even seen to look at the pattern and just trust that the models already know how things will be in 10 to 15 days. Many of them have just gotten lazy. Keep up the good work guys, those that look deeper.
 
GaWx said:
As others have mentioned, the 2nd week in Feb remains the time when it would most likely get cold in the SE for a sustained period despite the GEFS insisting that the NAO will by then be quite solidly positive at +1+. The entire winter has had a mainly +NAO, meaning a -NAO hasn't been needed to make it cold and produce any of the 3 winter storms. This is still
another real life example that the -NAO is overrated as far as it being crucial, especially when other indices are favorable.

The GEFS AO prog continues to be for sub -1 in the 2nd week of Feb even after adjusting for its bias of -0.5 to -0.75. Its PNA prog for then is near a solid +1.

Regarding the MJO, today's EPS prog is for an even stronger peak of nearly 3 while in phase 7 (vs 2.5 3 days ago) but still nowhere near the ridiculous 4.2 peak GEFS had 3 days ago. Here's the key as I see it: that phase 7 peak is on 2/1 and it falls substantially from there to a more favorable 2.0 at the start of the 2nd week of Feb. It then slows and drops to an even more favorable 1.75 as it just enters phase 8 on 2/10-1. Then it is poised to move very slowly and probably weaken further, which are both good for cold chances.

In summary, the teleconnections other than the NAO remain as they've been for several days favorable for sustained/intense SE cold starting at some point in the 2nd week of Feb.
Click to expand...
Larry,
Good write-up. Completely agree.
Just thinking though, with the AO and PNA both favorable before mid-month, parts of the region could see some good chances for cold (perhaps not sustained) and hence frozen, before then.
Thanks, as always, for your analysis!
Best,
Phil
 
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