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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

The pre-lead up to 2/10-2/12 looked interesting to me at first (both ways) however, it becomes a cutoff low... For a moment I thought it might slip under the previous runner (just enough to where it isn't with it).
 
The CFSv2 forecasting Phase 8 MJO last half of Feb. CFSv2 has pretty good skill out to day 20 and spread seems minimal between the 4 ensemble members. Additional reading on CFSv2 MJO prediction skill: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1806-9

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I just noticed the RGEM on tropical tidbits goes out to 54 now instead of 48...here is the 6Z run for Sunday. It's long range of RGEM, but will throw it out there.

51.png 52.png 53.png 54.png
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I can’t believe there is not a thread for this sat night/Sunday event.
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They already said, " everybody doesn't live in NC"
I think I even get an hour or two of sleet and ZR, if temps cooperate! I could see my area getting stuck at 34-35, with the heavy cloud cover!
 
Tarheel1 said:
They already said, " everybody doesn't live in NC"
I think I even get an hour or two of sleet and ZR, if temps cooperate! I could see my area getting stuck at 34-35, with the heavy cloud cover!
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It's not because of that. I think we can go ahead and start one after the 12Z runs today if they still show ice and snow for N GA through NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
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Well the Euro is onboard for sure

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Webberweather53 said:
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
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Awesome! That'll give us snow 7-10 days later!
 
Ensembles still look like crap long range. Weeklies look like crappier crap. But generally there's a -AO and +PNA forecasted with favorable MJO phases likely. I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
From their recent discussion and looking at the overall setup, the SPC sounds like they're going to pull the trigger soon on severe weather Tue and Wed next week from the Arklatex to the Carolinas
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Webb,
The only important thing today is whether you saw your shadow this morning ... :p
JK and
Best!
Phil
 
The RGEM is below freezing near the onset of the precip on Sunday from Raleigh to Charlotte and points NW, I wouldn't sleep on this one even if it's just an in situ CAD esp if you're near and west of the Triad
 
Webberweather53 said:
The RGEM is below freezing near the onset of the precip on Sunday from Raleigh to Charlotte and points NW, I wouldn't sleep on this one even if it's just an in situ CAD esp if you're near and west of the Triad
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And the 12z nam 3km is also picking up on some freezing rain for the same areas:
zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
Looking at the latest models' (6Z GFS, 0Z Euro, and 0Z CMC suites) 5 day periods' temperatures, this is what they all show for the SE US:

Days 1-5: a bit colder than normal upper SE to little above normal FL

Days 6-10: between a bit colder than normal to normal Memphis area/W TN/N MS & near normal or warmer than normal rest of SE

Days 11-15: variable Memphis area/W TN/N MS to near normal or warmer rest of SE

Summary: Per latest model consensus:
W TN/N MS is portion of SE with best shot at consistently colder than normal next 15 days.
 
With the EURO flipping about the cold for Feb to warm, I normally would have doubts about why such a drastic flip flop. However with the agreement with it's indices being so strong, it does make me think it could be right and the GEFS and CSV-2 are wrong. Let's see what the GEFS shows tonight or tomorrow and whether it stars to move towards the EURO or holds it's ground. Will be a good test for us to measure one against the other and see if the EURO continues to dawdle in phase 7 of the MJO or pushes it into 8 quickly
 
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