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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GeorgiaGirl said:
A CAD event around 2/11-2/13 might have some legs...North NC had some wintry from it and the GEFS had been showing something small around there.

edit: looool a cutoff does show up but it's in lala land.
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Way too far out to give it legs. If we can make it to the 9th and it keeps showing up, then it has legs. Also, seeing how the MJO has been shifting and is now projected to go into phase 8 is changing the model output in addition to overall oscillation setups. Shoot, I thought I was getting ice here tomorrow, but the models just said nope, too warm. It may end up like the last event for everyone else as well.
 
With phase 8 looking more likely you would expect models to start trending colder one would think. I know other factors are involved. But I still think we are looking at a colder period in the 8-14 day timeframe. Could be wrong, but I still think most of the upper and mid-south aren't through with winter weather.
 
Based off of what I have the GEFS is still torn but leans even more to warm 8-9 days from now.

edit: nevermind lol. Spoke too soon.
 
You can pretty much kiss this La Nina goodbye, a huge WWB like this in February & March in the wake of one of the strongest WP MJO events on record will at least put us in ENSO neutral conditions as we get into the spring. Further coupling later in the spring or summer could trigger an El Nino. If the forcing wanes, it's also possible La Nina returns later on but we should see this La Nina come to an end at least temporarily over the next several weeks.
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snowvol said:
With phase 8 looking more likely you would expect models to start trending colder one would think. I know other factors are involved. But I still think we are looking at a colder period in the 8-14 day timeframe. Could be wrong, but I still think most of the upper and mid-south aren't through with winter weather.
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I tend to think we at least have a 1-2 inch event still left in the bag this winter.
 
You need to take a drive if this happens Brent
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As Mr. Jon posted above the Euro has MJO into phase 8 by mid February. These are previous February and early March periods where the MJO was in similar amplitude phase 8.

Image below is roughly 7-10 days prior to entering phase 8.
MJOPh8-pre10.gif

This is what the Euro shows for roughly 5 days prior to entering phase 8, assuming todays forecast. Cold Eur-Asia like analogs above.

14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg T2M Anom 336.png


Analogs rolled forward 7-10 days after entering phase 8. With tanking SOI and favorable MJO, last 10 days of February into March could be fun.

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pcbjr said:
There was a lawyer, going to Court.
Another lawyer, much older than he, ran into him on the way.
She said - You have a lot of books and papers with you.
He said, Yeah, I have the law on my side. All of this written by learned legal scholars.
She said, do you have facts?
He said, I have this law. I need no more.
He lost.
No-one on the jury knew what he was talking about.
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Lol, you can argue until you are blue in the face over whether it will be above or below normal, but all that matters is if it will be freezing, or below, some of those nights, and it will! It's freakin' winter. It always gets cold. The important factor, is will it also be precipitating on those cold nights, and that there is a crap shoot.
 
I'll just leave this headline on wunderground here:

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Storm5 said:
Lol NOAA

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Well , Greg Forbes said winters over for the south too! The list is growing, JB has been awful quiet about weather the last few days, once he saw the sonofarcticgeddon collapsing before his eyes! :(
 
I'm still trying to figure out how we're not gonna be cold when everything seems to be going our way besides the models. Positive PNA, Negative AO before a slight positive then right back to negative, MJO looks to be going into phase 8. So why don't the models have cold over here?
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I'm still trying to figure out how we're not gonna be cold when everything seems to be going our way besides the models. Positive PNA, Negative AO before a slight positive then right back to negative, MJO looks to be going into phase 8. So why don't the models have cold over here?
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Not sure if it's a reaction to the mjo or what but they models over the last 36 hours are trending towards a cold pattern with longer lasting cold shots . Will be interesting to see if that continues

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Storm5 said:
Not sure if it's a reaction to the mjo or what but they models over the last 36 hours are trending towards a cold pattern with longer lasting cold shots . Will be interesting to see if that continues

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It is, and it will be ...
 
Storm5 said:
Lol Greg Forbes did he give a torcon value for winter being over ???

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Lol! Yeah, TORCON 9 out of 10 that winters over! Add WxSouth to the list that have basically punted winter too. End of Feb, if at all for him.
 
Storm5 said:
Not sure if it's a reaction to the mjo or what but they models over the last 36 hours are trending towards a cold pattern with longer lasting cold shots . Will be interesting to see if that continues

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Do you think the that with all the players on the field the models will continue to correct?
 
I didn't know Robert punted Winter also. That is interesting because just last week he had a post about Feb being awesome for Wintry weather. Maybe that was just an advertisement, after all.

The models are struggling because of the MJO and in some form, it's a kink in the forecast for now.

The thing that concerns me for my area, is the Gulf being tapped, but the majority of the storm tracks showing up are coming inland in some form. I am kind of ignoring the temperatures, because for here, that kind of storm track argues for ice or rain regardless.
 
Shawn said:
I didn't know Robert punted Winter also. That is interesting because just last week he had a post about Feb being awesome for Wintry weather. Maybe that was just an advertisement, after all.

The models are struggling because of the MJO and in some form, it's a kink in the forecast for now.

The thing that concerns me for my area, is the Gulf being tapped, but the majority of the storm tracks showing up are coming inland in some form. I am kind of ignoring the temperatures, because for here, that kind of storm track argues for ice or rain regardless.
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His post also kind of backtracks. Almost like he denies previously forecasting the remarkable February. Just last week WxSouth talked like it was going to be a Fab Feb, now he denies saying that? Either he's backtracking or I'm on drugs and didn't know it one or the other.
 
Given that the models are seeing phase 8 now we should be seeing adjustments to it but I just don't know, I don't think it'll be enough to tell what's going to happen outside of the guessing game land. Seems like the storm track just favors the upper south if even that even through the land in which me and one other member were trying to get for a while (2/11-2/14).
 
Well that period that I was interested in starting in January (even before we got close) is there but it's eh, just an inland runner...I just don't think the way the trough is patterned is good enough and while the wave may need some working out, it may be too little, too late on fixing what the storm path is until later on.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well that period that I was interested in starting in January (even before we got close) is there but it's eh, just an inland runner...I just don't think the way the trough is patterned is good enough and while the wave may need some working out, it may be too little, too late on fixing what the storm path is until later on.
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Augusta through here are screwed with the storm tracks, even the 00z GFS coming out now is a disaster. Add to that, warmer temperatures, and I think outside late Feb-Mid March, our window is just about closed.
 
Shawn said:
Augusta through here are screwed with the storm tracks, even the 00z GFS coming out now is a disaster. Add to that, warmer temperatures, and I think outside late Feb-Mid March, our window is just about closed.
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I think it's closed till next winter.
 
Spurs up said:
I think it's closed till next winter.
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We can't be sure, because if we can get into later Feb-Early March, we can still get an enough cold air of sorts that can work in our favor. While historically Mid Feb is best, we have had many events in early March also.

Things are wonky with modeling, and lets be honest here. CAE usually gets nailed with temperatures in the 60's and 70's leading up to and after the event. Rarely, do we get nailed in a true arctic outbreak. MJO is throwing a big wrench into the forecasts, but I do think we are not going to see some crazy Arctic outbreak before late Feb, it at all in our neck of the woods, which is not exactly a bad thing.
 
I would like to note that it looks like the PV is going to split. What it means down stream, might not be of much use (as it could be too late), but at some point, parts of the SE are going to get another shot. I just favor the upper South as of now.
 
Yeah it's the GFS but it doesn't look like it responded to phase 8 at all or the idea that after the MJO passes through 4-5-6 there's a trough two weeks later in the east. I'll give it some more time though.
 
The way I see it is, the MJO needs to get into the better phases or we are gonna struggle. Calling winter off now is to me, stupid. But again, that’s just me. I know I have been quiet lately, but just been sitting back and seeing how the models are going to respond. I will say, the models are awful at predicting the mjo movement. And wait for it..... euro seems to be the worst at it lately
 
deltadog03 said:
The way I see it is, the MJO needs to get into the better phases or we are gonna struggle. Calling winter off now is to me, stupid. But again, that’s just me. I know I have been quiet lately, but just been sitting back and seeing how the models are going to respond. I will say, the models are awful at predicting the mjo movement. And wait for it..... euro seems to be the worst at it lately
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I mean, what can go wrong? If someone calls it off (like many have done outside this forum with more viewership on Twitter etc), the only thing that can happen is it works out better for cold or snow fans.

I think there may be a disconnection between no more snow and a torch/heat. We can all certainly score with the right storm in a overall warmer scenario. Historically, I am sure Macon has done well when it was just 74F two days before and I bet 74F or warmer after it was over. I wish I could pull data like Larry can for areas like Macon, Augusta, Orangeburg to see just how many snow events have happened in March, even, with upper 70's around before and after.

I still do not like the storm tracks for our back yards though. I have just been using the GFS based on that, and not paying much attention to the Euro in this situation. I would assume the GFS still handles the Northern Stream better. I am not sure which model is best with the Southern stream when all is said and done, though.
 
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