Severe December 28th -new years possible severe weather event.

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Low level lapse rates aren’t that impressive, with at the most some 6-6.5C near that sfc boundary.
, I’m not saying this threat isn’t gonna happen but this setup isn’t really scaring me much, still definitely a threat tho, that cell that entered MS definitely is the most interesting one imo
 
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This area at the border is really spinning. Wonder if shear is starting to increase finally. If so it should spread to the southeast as we move through sunset.Screenshot_20211229-163149.png
 
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Yep. The better shear is moving southeast. A few hours and these cells should start spinning like tops. Goes along with how the HRRR showed Screenshot_20211229-163803.png
 
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Low level lapse rates aren’t that impressive, with at the most some 6-6.5C near that sfc boundary.
, I’m not saying this threat isn’t gonna happen but this setup isn’t really scaring me much, still definitely a threat tho, that cell that entered MS definitely is the most interesting one imo
That has been the one of the two sticking points on the size of the event, the warm layer aloft and the relative lack of forcing . You can clearly see the cap here.