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Severe December 28th -new years possible severe weather event.

Pretty significant changes with the Day 1 outlook.

Metro Atlanta and much of N. Georgia are now in the Slight Risk area. It has also been expanded westward to include all of S. Arkansas and the southern reaches of the area has been notably trimmed in AL / MS.

There's also an enhanced risk area with a 10% tornado risk area along the TN / MS / AL borders.
 
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Arcc said:
That is concerning; it’s been pretty decent in the past. Looking through the WRFs, the best instability and shear line up pretty well with that bullseye and to the SW as the low level jet cranks just after dark. If convection could sustain itself, there could be a few hours of really dangerous weather in that area with sbcape of 1500-2000 and 0-1km helicity 250-300.
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Looks like that stupid thing I was talking about yesterday is coming to fruition. A sig tornado area needs to be put in on north Alabama. Updraft helicity has really taken off over the northern section of Alabama. Things may start rolling a few hours early in north Alabama as well.
 

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Yeah I just looked at that my hopes for southern clutter has all but diminished with faster progression. Damn it.... Sure was hopeful. Still a chance but most southern activity is being booted to the east rapidly, leaving little to no blocking. Not looking good.

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09z hrrr is printing 400 1km srh helicity splotch in north Alabama through the afternoon . Wow.
 
Zander98al said:
We may have a mini tornado spree in north Alabama today ?. Strongest tornado potential through the afternoon appears to be around a boundary in north Alabama
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One thing to watch for is to see if the trend from last year continues with the threat verifying farther south than the models suggest.
 
That was my thoughts until the latest model runs that seem to kick any southern convection off to the east leaving the north to soak up that southern stream. It's become the norm to get the convection further south and setup some blocking but the models backed off that trend. They never do a good job of depicting this phenomenon. In past if the hint at any development south and ahead of the system you can generally say it will fill in and rob the northern storms of instability. However, the last run appears to quickly rush any southern convection off to the east early leaving the primary system wide open for moisture transport north.. these are my thoughts and observations over the years and lack any scientific support. But the blocking from southern clutter has been a poorly forecasts phenomenon.

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Got a bad feeling in my gut about today. Boundary seems to be here for the northern most development of tornadic development. Seems like it should start producing around noon to 3.Screenshot_20211229-055841.png
 
Probably a nasty hodo in that north Alabama region. SRH helicity in that region is screaming tornado threat. HRRR is starting to try and conjeal a semi convective line. But I doubt that will happen . The backing of the winds in north Alabama is phenomenal. 1000 cape will definetly suffice for a winter event. It may even push into 1500 capeScreenshot_20211229-064638.pngScreenshot_20211229-064557.pngScreenshot_20211229-064531.png
 

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That tornado model is very good…likely gonna see a brief tornado across southern NC maybe Charlotte points west either late tonight and also later this week. Clouds are screaming fast overhead Wilkesboro this morning. It felt like Myrtle Beach early this morning with the wind in the foothills.
 
Zander98al said:
Probably a nasty hodo in that north Alabama region. SRH helicity in that region is screaming tornado threat. HRRR is starting to try and conjeal a semi convective line. But I doubt that will happen . The backing of the winds in north Alabama is phenomenal. 1000 cape will definetly suffice for a winter event. It may even push into 1500 capeView attachment 99621View attachment 99622View attachment 99623
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Meso low forms over MS and tracks into AL significantly backing low level winds.

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