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Severe December 28th -new years possible severe weather event.

Enhanced risk extended slightly east in north Alabama

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
HSVweather said:
Enhanced risk extended slightly east in north Alabama

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
5502F5DF-2BAB-49A3-9BE9-52B6B786443C.jpeg
“
A conditional significant-
tornado potential appears roughly collocated with the "enhanced"
area, with forecast hodographs on the fringes of that parameter
space; one may need to be added in a future outlook if sustained
supercell potential appears in more-confident large-hodograph
setting. “
 
Hpdb301 said:
Yeah I just looked at that my hopes for southern clutter has all but diminished with faster progression. Damn it.... Sure was hopeful. Still a chance but most southern activity is being booted to the east rapidly, leaving little to no blocking. Not looking good.

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Nothing ever pointed to southern convection cutting off inflow, so you shouldn’t be surprised your wish cast didn’t come to fruition.
 
Looks like the HRRR wants to mix out DPs in some areas and in others it decouples the boundary layer, either could be wrenches although the latter loves to be forecasted and rarely happens. Something I am watching is to see if directional shear continues to increase across central AL. The trend so far has been to increase this as we go on. The HRRR would be problematic for the BHM area just after sunset.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like the HRRR wants to mix out DPs in some areas and in others it decouples the boundary layer, either could be wrenches although the latter loves to be forecasted and rarely happens. Something I am watching is to see if directional shear continues to increase across central AL. The trend so far has been to increase this as we go on. The HRRR would be problematic for the BHM area just after sun
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Luckily I'll be home by the time it reaches Birmingham. If anything it could be a bunch of spin ups in my area. Also, the sunset hours Could be another spark in activity, shear increases when the sun goes down. I'd expect instability to remain around a 1000, maybe a bit more. Storms seem to be a bit more jumpy after the sun sets. Aka April 28th 2014.
 
DadOfJax said:
Nothing ever pointed to southern convection cutting off inflow, so you shouldn’t be surprised your wish cast didn’t come to fruition.
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I think he may have been talking about new years threat. I've posted a couple times in the wrong thread lol
 
Arcc said:
Looks like the HRRR wants to mix out DPs in some areas and in others it decouples the boundary layer, either could be wrenches although the latter loves to be forecasted and rarely happens. Something I am watching is to see if directional shear continues to increase across central AL. The trend so far has been to increase this as we go on. The HRRR would be problematic for the BHM area just after sunset.
Click to expand...
14z HRRR has increased it a good bit it looks like.
 
Is there a reliable numeric relationship between the nadocast percentages and the tor-con index (e.g. 40% on nadocast = approximate tor-con of 7)?
 
Still a low cloud deck and mist here in 30548, let’s see if we can dry up and get some sun to pop out. Looks like the heavy stuff comes in around 11-1am here. I don’t see it keeping the steam up without day time heating tho.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Still a low cloud deck and mist here in 30548, let’s see if we can dry up and get some sun to pop out. Looks like the heavy stuff comes in around 11-1am here. I don’t see it keeping the steam up without day time heating tho.
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The Newnan EF4 tornado back in March hit around that time (and they were also on the edge of the severe weather risk area), FWIW.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Still a low cloud deck and mist here in 30548, let’s see if we can dry up and get some sun to pop out. Looks like the heavy stuff comes in around 11-1am here. I don’t see it keeping the steam up without day time heating tho.
Click to expand...

That Seneca EF 3 happened around Easter and came in the 2-3am range I think


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