Looks like a environment where updrafts would struggle a bit given skinny cape and somewhat weaker low level shear, still a environment that can produce tho
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Zander98al
Guest
I thought good EML aided in better lapse rates though.
That’s not really a EML but just lots of dry air aloft, a EML typically has 6.5C+ lapse rates, lapse rates under 6C are very poor
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Zander98al
Guest
Hmmph. I thought dry air aloft and eml where the same ?. I always looked at the 500mb area and see those jagged lines pushing to the west of the sounding and thought that correlated with a good EML. Does both no aid in more discreet convection, and loaded gun soundings?
Typically a EML has steep mid level lapse rates (near dry adiabatic lapse rate) and a cap within a area of dry desert air
That sounding you posted just has dry air aloft, typically dry air aloft makes convection more discreet but increases the chance of damaging wind gusts/stronger downdrafts, given dry air entrainment creates evaporative cooling and downward momentum in thunderstorms, which is the process that results in microbursts. Basically dry air aloft means a high chance of downdraft/RFD dominated convection/supercells
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Zander98al
Guest
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Zander98al
Guest
Wee bit concerning. At all the kidney beans being printed out by the 00z HRRR.
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Zander98al
Guest
Spc mentions they're holding off on added enchanced and a hatched 10% tornado risk because of uncertainty with the surface low. If this isnt eerie looking I don't know what is. 
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Zander98al
Guest
Per the 12z hrrr. There's a decent little swath of updraft tracks in central Alabama I've been seeing this a few runs. My thinking is, that a enchanced area will be added in this corridor with the sig tornado chance. The Birmingham vicinity seems to be the sweet spot of both instability and shear as of right now.
12z NAM is really impressive with thermodynamics across MS/west AL. One of the big sticking points right now is the almost complete unidirectional flow. The surface will suffice and probably back more, but there really needs to be more directional turning aloft.
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Zander98al
Guest
How stupid 18z hrrr run was skipped over. Now I gotta wait til the 00z to see what tommorow a threat looks like on the hrrr ???
HSVweather
Member
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Zander98al
Guest
I was just about to post some stuff about that lol, they went back and reran it I think. Or I might be imagining stuff lol.
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Zander98al
Guest
I feel like tommorows event will overproduce a bit. It already feels muggy outside so it's not going to take much for it to destabilize more. I think it's aiding in the intensity by this system being nocturnal cause it's really juicing out as much shear as it can coming during the night when shear increases.
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Zander98al
Guest
Temp is 72 and dew point 66. That's muggy for a winter day. Me thinking out loud, but I wonder how well models are grasping the moisture. Seems to always be underdone and never do that well during the winter months. When it comes to instability.
gawxnative
Member
69/66 here at 650 after a Hi here of 76! to be honest it "feels" like severe on the way weather. Only thing missing is the wind is near calm
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Zander98al
Guest
It's been very windy here. In birmingham
If anything hopefully we can get a good amount of rain out of this system and the next. We could use some after how dry it has been the last few months.