Duly noted! Still early but could be a bust or a peak to late bloomer! I laugh at the social media posts that declare it’s over. We haven’t even hit peak season! Not that I’m not wishing a landfall as I’ve lived through a few and the aftermath sucks but something to track would be nice!
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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Want be much longer now. Blobs growing:
smast16
Member
We've not had a storm since, so i'm updating, we are now at the point we need to have more than 1 storm every 4 days to reach that target.
Taylor C
Member
There are a lot of strong prospects on satellite.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a flurry of activity in the next 7 days followed by a dead period with another round of activity in the day 15-21 period
NoSnowATL
Member
Gulf/carribbean look interesting in that time frame
Brent
Member
The GFS is all over the place with that day 10 storm... Today's runs yeah not so good
Shaggy
Member
At this point I revert back to only caring about 144 hrs and under. It's clear the models are pretty inconsistent after that time so anything beyond that is just good to look at for fun.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Brent
Member
Different storm. The original one goes into Mexico now
lizajane
Member
I'm just waiting to see if both farmers almanacs are right.
Brent
Member
NCSNOW
Member
It aint gonna fish /ots thats for sure. Low rider track.
Taylor C
Member
Good morning Atlantic, I see you remain active with persistent area of thunderstorms. More time and favorable conditions are ahead for you to become something more.
NCSNOW
Member
Watching IR Loop, things are really starting to change. This wave in eastern Atlantic is really getting its act together more an more as we've been all noting , pointing out since yesterday. Ill be very surprised if this doesn't manage to get a circulation down to the surface and spin up into the next named storm here soon.
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Season cancel.
Absolutely.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Yeah, his pattern recognition, is second to none! Especially in winter! ?
Brent
Member
Taylor C
Member
Would be nice to get the area listed as an Invest.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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? ? 
Shaggy
Member
That east Atlantic wave is looking better and better
Tornadocane
Member
This wave at 35W might be the one to watch. I wouldn't be surprised to see the models pick up on it as it looks to be organizing while it pulls away from this weird east Atlantic Gyre/Blocky Pattern. In addition to the strong convection and vigorous mid-level spin, it does look like energy is coalescing around that area. It's breathing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=catl&product=ir
It looks like the Atlantic is starting to get interesting. I'm definitely staying up for the 00z suite tonight.
It looks like the Atlantic is starting to get interesting. I'm definitely staying up for the 00z suite tonight.
Shaggy
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if it's an invest by noon tomorrow.
Tornadocane
Member
If it continues to produce strong convection as it moves west and wrap those vorticities at varying levels, I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC mentions it tomorrow morning. It could just be shear and a mid-level spin playing some tricks, but it kind of looks like there's a pocket of low shear where the vorticities are attempting to merge.
Tornadocane
Member
On Storm2K, a member just stated that their was an uptick in EPS members that showed this system developing between 12z and 18z. More members are trying to take this system W/NW away from the East Atlantic cluster-F###.
Tornadocane
Member
This is 2 hours old, but it shows the strongest convection between Lower Level Vorticity. There does seem to be some coalescing of these voriticities at 850 and 925Mbs, but won't know for sure until 3z map comes out. That SW Lobe at 9N, 32W is the one we need to watch.
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Brent
Member
0z GFS has the massive Gulf hurricane back
accu35
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I do not like these north trends
Tornadocane
Member
It was one of those nights where I only slept for 4 hours, because I'm super-excited about tracking a storm. Our Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic has made substantial improvements overnight. Although the system still looks stretched, vorticity has become more stacked and vigorous from 500Mb to 925Mb. Vorticity Map clearly shows the SW area of the system taking control. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=
This systems has the potential to be a monster once it passes 40W. I'm not surprised the GFS and ECMWF, as well as increasing members of their ensembles, are both developing this system.
This systems has the potential to be a monster once it passes 40W. I'm not surprised the GFS and ECMWF, as well as increasing members of their ensembles, are both developing this system.
Tornadocane
Member
BHS1975
Member
What's with the GFS popping a low out of nowhere taking this ots?
lexxnchloe
Member
The euro appears much more interesting.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah the gfs has been all over the place.
Shaggy
Member
I think if this holds on to the convection through dmin then it is gonna get an invest and a increase km probabilities from the NHC
Tornadocane
Member
I have it saved in a folder. LOL. I bet the Puerto Rico NWS Office is already concerned about that scenario. The EURO has a few Irma scenarios, but the GFS thinks it will be more like Maria.
