Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

[Tornadocane]

I think if this holds on to the convection through dmin then it is gonna get an invest and a increase km probabilities from the NHC

I don't think it's holding onto convection. I can see the area with the most vigorous Lower to Mid-Level spin displaced to the NE of the strong convection. As forecasted, it's getting pulled NNW as the Cape Verde Wave approaches. I agree that the probabilities with this system have definitely gone up, but we're going to need to wait for these two waves to finish dancing.

View attachment 120965

 

[accu35]

There’s are x in the Caribbean

 

[Taylor C]

GFS



UM

 

[Snowfan]

GFS

View attachment 120968

UM

View attachment 120967

GFS: I’m the craziest model ever
UKMET: Hold my beer

 

[SD]

Euro was threatening

 

[BHS1975]

Euro was threatening

You don't think that trough will kick it ots?

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS

View attachment 120968

UM

View attachment 120967

What model is that?

 

[lexxnchloe]

What model is that?

GFS

View attachment 120968

UM

View attachment 120967

The GFS at noon is alot weaker and heading OTS.

 

[SD]

You don't think that trough will kick it ots?

I wouldn't feel good if we were at D10 with the euro being correct. It's probably landfall south of NC but that's an ugly pattern for the EC

 

[RBR71]

I wouldn't feel good if we were at D10 with the euro being correct. It's probably landfall south of NC but that's an ugly pattern for the EC

Yep

 

[SD]

Yep

Right before a famous one hit

 

[accu35]

Most gefs members favors a eastern gulf

 

[RBR71]

Most gefs members favors a eastern gulf

We know it's coming for you bro.... hunker down now

 

[Bannerdude]

Yep

Here are the individual ensembles, definitely eyebrow raising for the SE coastline

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yep

Pretty amazing that the ECMWF shows nothing at all hitting TX/MEX while the GFS has a 933 cane there at exactly the same time.

 

[Brent]

Most of the tracks are the eastern wave not the GFS hurricane in the Gulf

 

[JHS]

Most gefs members favors a eastern gulf

Maybe that will be right, but come in as a tropical storm, not a hurricane and move right up from NW Florida up through the mountains of NC and Tenn. That might finally give most of us some rain.

 

[Deleted member 609]

Maybe that will be right, but come in as a tropical storm, not a hurricane and move right up from NW Florida up through the mountains of NC and Tenn. That might finally give most of us some rain.

Yea when was the last time it rained there.. 1988?

 

[jeremyt]

As depicted now, but how many model changes?

 

[Brent]

As depicted now, but how many model changes?

10 days out is an eternity in weather. We don't even have a storm yet. Just have to watch and see for consistency

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

We have 5 days to avoid getting shutout in August. Will there be a named storm in the next 5 days ?

 

[Taylor C]

Surely this will be listed an invest soon.

 

[Brent]

We have 5 days to avoid getting shutout in August. Will there be a named storm in the next 5 days ?

I'm not sure... I was going to say no but the MDR wave is really on the fast track right now

 

[Brent]

The end of the Euro is a weenie run

 

[Shaggy]

The end of the Euro is a weenie run View attachment 121009

The gfs and euro are in different universes in their model depictions. Gfs has a major in the gulf the euro nothing, then the euro has this off the east coast while the gfs has nothing. Who knows

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS still loaded…

 

[lexxnchloe]

The gfs and euro are in different universes in their model depictions. Gfs has a major in the gulf the euro nothing, then the euro has this off the east coast while the gfs has nothing. Who knows

At least with the euro you can see where the hurricane comes from. The gfs hurricane seems to come from nowhere.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS still loaded…View attachment 121010

HA, I typed too soon, lol

 

[NCSNOW]

Rascal in central atlantic is more disjointed than past 2 days looking at latest ir loop. Nowhere close to getting stacked, consolidated.

GOES-East - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Band 13 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[NCSNOW]

3 waves lined up in Africa. One thats about to come off into the Atlantic has a nice midlevel spin. See if it can sustain.

Africa | Global Infrared Satellite | Satellite Maps | Weather Underground

www.wunderground.com

 

[NCSNOW]

The 70s and most of the 80s where pretty much a slow cycle for tropical activity. Wonder if we are at the begining of one of those periods again.

 

[jrips27]

 

[Taylor C]

The EURO is the fastest with development and forward speed in the short term.

 

[Brent]

They must have seen the models too

REMARK: THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL CONDUCT AN 7.5-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, DEPARTING TBPB
AT 28/1500Z.

 

[Snow_chaser]

They must have seen the models too

REMARK: THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL CONDUCT AN 7.5-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, DEPARTING TBPB
AT 28/1500Z.

Got to burn the carbon out of them plane engines lol they been sitting all summer with nothing to investigate

 

[Taylor C]

GFS and EURO pretty close to each other in location with the system next Saturday night.

 

[BHS1975]

Looks like it's trying to consolidate more.

 

[Henry2326]

12z Icon and CMC on board....Icon faster by about 48 hours and stronger.

 

[Brent]

12z Icon and CMC on board....Icon faster by about 48 hours and stronger.

The CMC is the real story because it hasn't been forming anything

 

[BHS1975]

Anyone got the ukmet?