Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

[Cary_Snow95]

Long range gfs continues to drop mega east coast troughs

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GFS continues the aggressive wave breaking which ushers in the dry air SW. Euro slows this down by mid august. Who will win out

 

[lexxnchloe]

We dont have winter here, i was hoping for a hurricane season. Any hope left?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Brent]

We dont have winter here, i was hoping for a hurricane season. Any hope left?

Long way to go still like I've said. Many seasons have flipped in mid late August

It may not happen but on July 31st impossible to say for sure

 

[Shaggy]

Long way to go still like I've said. Many seasons have flipped in mid late August

It may not happen but on July 31st impossible to say for sure

Many seasons we don't even see a named storm till August. I would maybe lean away from a hyperactive season at this point but lots can still happen.

 

[Metwannabe]

Many seasons we don't even see a named storm till August. I would maybe lean away from a hyperactive season at this point but lots can still happen.

Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least

 

[Shaggy]

Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least

It's easy to bust on the high end when it comes especially to hurricanes. Too much dust, dry air, shear, can all ruin a forecast for a hyperactive season. I use to never expect anything until August and had a sigh of relief after Sept 25th or so in the past because most of our canes hit in that 3 week peak season. Now I don't relax until mid October as we've seen some strong storms later in the season.

 

[BHS1975]

Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least

Maybe LA will finally get a break.

 

[accu35]

Oops 6z gfs has a storm in the gulf

 

[Metwannabe]

Oops 6z gfs has a storm in the gulf

Oops for the 50th time this year

 

[accu35]

Oops for the 50th time this year

Your absolutely right

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Chazwin]

I just don’t see anything getting going out in the Atlantic until that dry air moves out.

 

[Brent]

Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least

Yeah let's not forget Sandy Michael Matthew... All in October... There's definitely been some backloaded seasons lately

I remember a couple weeks before Katrina people wondering if the Gulf would ever have a hurricane again...(yeah even 2005 had a lull in late July and early mid August)

Long way to go. It may not get going but things can flip very fast especially latter half of August

 

[Shaggy]

Yeah let's not forget Sandy Michael Matthew... All in October... There's definitely been some backloaded seasons lately

I remember a couple weeks before Katrina people wondering if the Gulf would ever have a hurricane again...(yeah even 2005 had a lull in late July and early mid August)

Long way to go. It may not get going but things can flip very fast especially latter half of August

Don't forget Joaquin for October monsters.

 

[accu35]

View attachment 120349

If we get anything here soon probably be a home grown.

 

[accu35]

Gonna be active soon

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 120353
Gonna be active soon

Really gonna depend on who is correct in regards to the wave train. GFS has constant wave breaking that pushes dry air into the MDR. Euro breaks down this feature faster

 

[accu35]