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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

ON THIS DATE:
Recall, Only Two years ago, I was bracing for Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall as a category one hurricane at Ocean Isle Beach, (NC), with maximum sustained winds of 85mph.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
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Wait... To have 15 more storms from August 15 (probably not much starting before this date) to say October 15 (realistic end) we would need to have one storm FORM every 4 days to reach that number. Seems a tad high, and I doubt we see an 'O' storm.

I'm not saying the season is doomed and blah blah, but I am doubting it's THAT active.
 
smast16 said:
Wait... To have 15 more storms from August 15 (probably not much starting before this date) to say October 15 (realistic end) we would need to have one storm FORM every 4 days to reach that number. Seems a tad high, and I doubt we see an 'O' storm.

I'm not saying the season is doomed and blah blah, but I am doubting it's THAT active.
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It's not impossible but it is a lot from where we stand right now. 2002 for example... Zero hurricanes til September then there were 8 storms that month(can you imagine?). There have been massive flips before

But I'm also not ruling anything out on the other end too
 
3D44B355-4559-4AA0-96F1-999A500DFE04.png
This area is what some poster are watching. Probably nothing, but good convergence with the gulf system. Extremely high TCHP waters. Also some impressive convection popping up over the waters.
 
Brent said:
It's not impossible but it is a lot from where we stand right now. 2002 for example... Zero hurricanes til September then there were 8 storms that month(can you imagine?). There have been massive flips before

But I'm also not ruling anything out on the other end too
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Oh for sure, it's not over, and 8 in a month would be exhausting. Eben then we'd basically need 2 back to back months like that to hit CSU's predictions.
 
The wave coming off Africa in about 2 days has a better chance than anything we've seen. First wave this week brought in a little better moisture and the next dry/Sal push will be behind it. As a whole though the environment still isn't great and there's a good chance it'll be ots
 
SD said:
The wave coming off Africa in about 2 days has a better chance than anything we've seen. First wave this week brought in a little better moisture and the next dry/Sal push will be behind it. As a whole though the environment still isn't great and there's a good chance it'll be ots
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Yeah like you said it’s the best chance a wave has had so far.. which isn’t saying all too much. Dry air still going to be a major hindrance and there seems to be plenty of ways for this to come north and OTS. Constant lower heights on the east coast should protect us for the next few weeks
 
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Even tho there’s dry air around the 18z much better this run
 
Brent said:
GFS definitely trying. May be our best shot at something soon

It does have it getting sheared but I would caution about shear maps at day 7-10
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I’ve notice something in the gulf trying in the short range.
 
And we have a mention from the NHC

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some gradual development of this system while it
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
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