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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
OTS
Brent
Member
Yeah it's something at least but I agree
More broadly maybe things are going to start waking up after this
Cary_Snow95
Member
This one really needs to stay south to have a chance. Modeling is trending towards the northern MDR. Shear gonna have its way up there
Cary_Snow95
Member
smast16
Member
Damn Gfs getting into winter mode already. Running lows right into a High again.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I think the gfs is likely over amping this way too quickly. Euro will be telling as it’s been backing off
Cary_Snow95
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Major differences between the euro and gfs in the short term
Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro continues to strengthen the sub tropical low. This will further dampen activity after this wave
Cary_Snow95
Member
Development chances now 0/40
Brent
Member
Right on schedule with climo picking up if this happens 
Last edited:
Shaggy
Member
Been a horribly boring and miserable summer. We need to have something to track
Brent
Member
Last 2 years we had the biggest US hit of the year at the end of August. We shall see. Things can flip fast out there
Brent
Member
6z GFS.... The orange circle. Beyond 300 hours though 
lexxnchloe
Member
Where did that come from?
Shaggy
Member
Just a fantasyland hiccup. It will be gone in a couple hours.
accu35
Member
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6z gfs
Brent
Member
It's a very extreme unlikely solution that yeah I'm sure will be gone next run but it is from the new invest off Africa. It's gonna have a long road ahead before it gets remotely close to the US that's for sure. I do think the season is starting to flip to more active but probably not there yet. Give it a couple more weeks unless the model support for this really increases
Cary_Snow95
Member
Right on cue GFS backs way off, more in line with other guidance now. Most likely still too aggressive
lexxnchloe
Member
Maybe it will revive tonight.
Brent
Member
Long way out. I mean if it even gets close to the US were talking day 10+ which is an eternity in weather
It's definitely gonna struggle along the way though that's for sure but hey it's something to watch after a month of nothing
Cary_Snow95
Member
End of Euro continues to advertise major dry air outbreaks
Shaggy
Member
At this point I just look for a ball on the court. Where it's at in 10 days is gonna hange for the 9 days so that not as important as getting the development in the 1st place
Cary_Snow95
Member
BHS1975
Member
Maybe early Sept
lexxnchloe
Member
Is that good or bad?
Thor
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Hey man it’s just what’s out there right now haha. Rather ironic the feature we can’t shake is an eastern trough. You know that sucker is hauling out of here come December
Thor
Member
Haha I'm not saying your wrong, your keeping all the weenies at bay which is always a good thing.
lexxnchloe
Member
You mean i wont be getting any rain mixed with sleet at 34 degrees this winter? That might be a good thing, lol
Brent
Member
Yeah like I said earlier... I'm not convinced this first wave will be the one but it's likely a precursor to things waking up. Now if it can really get it together and be a threat then yeah we got problems
Cary_Snow95
Member
The wave coming off around 8/21 might be the first legit threat of the season