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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

That's a very interesting solution on the 12z GFS, and I think there's a chance we could see it play out as depicted. It's not the usual GFS voodoo. If you take a look at the dynamic plots like 330 Potential Vorticity, 250Mb winds, and 700-850Mb wind and moisture, one can make out a boundary to the north of the Yucatan and Western Cuba that is left behind by a departing mid-latitude storm. This creates a baroclonically-enhanced zone for tropical development as the frontal boundary/shear weakens and pulls north. BTW... This is the same front shearing and smothering our Bay of Campeche Storm into Mexico.
 
Rain Cold said:
Quite a bit of dry air out in the Atlantic. Models have thrown these 10 day GOM storms around off and on for a while now. Troughing continues to want to drop into the east through the period. I still feel like it will be quite a while before we have a legitimate system to track (that has a chance to have a large impact to the US).
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Is any other model showing anything like the GFS is?
 
Arcc said:
Unless something changes, gonna be major dry air issues as it approaches the mainland unless something changes. Could be really good for rain making though.
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That dry air from the SW shows the shortwave trough over the Western Gulf, which provides baroclonic-enhancement to the TC all the way to Gulf Coast. While it could entrain dry air into the TC via SW Shear as it approaches the Coast, it actually helps create more vorticity, thunderstorm development, and enhanced Divergence to the NW to SE part of the storm. The core stays intact all the way to the coast, but the system will obviously take a more assymetric look as it pushed N and NE by the shortwave.
 
Tornadocane said:
That's a very interesting solution on the 12z GFS, and I think there's a chance we could see it play out as depicted. It's not the usual GFS voodoo. If you take a look at the dynamic plots like 330 Potential Vorticity, 250Mb winds, and 700-850Mb wind and moisture, one can make out a boundary to the north of the Yucatan and Western Cuba that is left behind by a departing mid-latitude storm. This creates a baroclonically-enhanced zone for tropical development as the frontal boundary/shear weakens and pulls north. BTW... This is the same front shearing and smothering our Bay of Campeche Storm into Mexico.
Click to expand...
I think with this type of a set up, we wouldn’t see a threat from a major hurricane, but definitely a cat 2 into the Florida panhandle with heavy rains being pulled north by the trough seems possible with it. The GFS has actually done a good job of picking up on development in that area from this type of a set up over the last few years
 
Still think we need to watch the Gulf around August 28th

The westerlies will be moving that ridge out to see and any quicker this wave will still be over water. Still a lot to work out but there’s a chance.
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