Shaggy
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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
lexxnchloe
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You got me excited so i went to look and the hurricane is further east at 06Z than it was at 0Z
Shaggy
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On the op
Shaggy
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For comparison this 384 hrs on 0z and 6z. Far more activity far closer to the east coast and gom between them. This is still 384hrs but just goes to show how different the ensemble was.from the op.
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accu35
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I would keep an eye out on the second system coming up from the Caribbean into the gulf. Gfs has been showing this a few runs now and little stronger each run. If continues, then I expect the gefs start catching on to this one.
Kind of just like winter! ???
If the EPS is correct, I’d be really doubtful if a US hit for the entire run unless it’s homegrown/quick GOM hit.
ForsythSnow
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We're 3-0-0 and 45 days since a TC advisory was last issued and halfway up the peak of hurricane season and there's barely anything that can form. Truly one of the slowest hurricane seasons in decades so far. And IF toughing sets up and stays over the E us through early sept, there likely will at best be one or 2 OTS storms at best through the peak. Chances are we'll stay under 10 storms this season if the trends keep up.
Unless something changes, gonna be major dry air issues as it approaches the mainland unless something changes. Could be really good for rain making though.
lexxnchloe
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Is the big cane gone?
It's there but slower and weaker so far
accu35
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Has about 10% support from the eps which isn't bad. The evolution of it kicking out of a larger gyre is always problematic and in wouldn't get too locked into anything until about 5 days from today once what kicks out of resolved
accu35
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Well if it’s dry air than it still has a 961mb at landfall
Yeah the cmc has it but it's west and has a ton of land interaction. We've seen this setup go both ways recently. Laura is a good example of a stronger eastern vort that avoided land interaction and made a US landfall
Quite a bit of dry air out in the Atlantic. Models have thrown these 10 day GOM storms around off and on for a while now. Troughing continues to want to drop into the east through the period. I still feel like it will be quite a while before we have a legitimate system to track (that has a chance to have a large impact to the US).
