Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

[BHS1975]

Next weekend needs to be watch in the gulf. Some of the 12z gefs members shows storm in central gulf.

Gfs is like 0-8 right now.

 

[Brent]

I've reached the point this season where I'll believe there's an Atlantic hurricane when it's on satellite ?

 

[NoSnowATL]

I've reached the point this season where I'll believe there's an Atlantic hurricane when it's on satellite ?

June 28th 2023

 

[lexxnchloe]

We still have September.

 

[Brent]

We still have September.

Oh I'm sure there will be storms at some point I'm just saying I'm done believing model fantasies ?

 

[SD]

It's a good thing the tropics are dead we certainly open the door for a US hit with the pattern later this week going forward

 

[NCSNOW]

Lemon time

 

[Brent]

Lemon time

View attachment 120681

It's already inland but it sure made an effort. If it had another day probably would have been a hurricane. Maybe a sign things are getting more favorable? Well see

 

[BHS1975]

It's already inland but it sure made an effort. If it had another day probably would have been a hurricane. Maybe a sign things are getting more favorable? Well seeView attachment 120682

Should get some drought relief from that.

 

[Shaggy]

Oh I'm sure there will be storms at some point I'm just saying I'm done believing model fantasies ?

The weather nerd in me says if the gfs has been this horrible at showing fake fantasy storms it could be just as bad as picking up initialization and we get a short term surprise that it has missed.

 

[Brent]

The weather nerd in me says if the gfs has been this horrible at showing fake fantasy storms it could be just as bad as picking up initialization and we get a short term surprise that it has missed.

Oh for sure. I mean look at the Gulf thing it wasn't hyped up on the models and very nearly became a thing(wouldn't surprise me in postseason if they declare it)

And tbh things closer to home are much more likely to become a problem anyway. It's a lot harder to get an African wave all the way across to the position(yeah they happen but there's a lot more that don't bother anyone)

 

[Shaggy]

Oh for sure. I mean look at the Gulf thing it wasn't hyped up on the models and very nearly became a thing(wouldn't surprise me in postseason if they declare it)

And tbh things closer to home are much more likely to become a problem anyway. It's a lot harder to get an African wave all the way across to the position(yeah they happen but there's a lot more that don't bother anyone)

And just like that the 0z is back to producing a cane in the long range.

 

[accu35]

SAL should be subsiding substantially over this next week.

 

[accu35]

Easterlies in the deep MDR relaxing substantially as well, which is one reason for the lower dust transport.

 

[Brent]

It's like the models know it's mid August

 

[Shaggy]

It's like the models know it's mid AugustView attachment 120703

Yeah not to be unexpected moving into the heart of the season. Gfs remaining persistent in its long range depictions of the MDR heating up

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[weather bubba]

I did see a major hurricane off the eastern seaboard at around hour 300 on the GFS this morning. That being said this is the GFS model we are talking about and hour 300 is jumping a bit into the future.

 

[SD]

View attachment 120721

This is an interesting little guy. If it can maintain its vorticity on its east side it'll be in the BOC in about 72 hours and potentially a STx threat. It's moisture and high pwat plume may actually be directed into the SE next week

 

[Brent]

GFS ensembles definitely getting busy