NoSnowATL
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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
Uncommon to have Euro and GFS aligned this far out....
Brent
Member
Yeah I think that's really the key thing here... Obviously I wanna see more than one run but if the GFS Euro stay consistent plus the ensemble support yeah something legit may happen
With the troughs we’ve seen coming into the east coast, I’ve felt all season that the eastern Gulf coast would have the highest chance of a threat. This look would be a classic Florida Panhandle hit with heavy rains spreading well out ahead up the east coast.
Would be nice to get a good soaking rain here.
Brent
Member
Thats almost scarily close to the euro considering it's day 10
Robust exhaust valves, very impressive and if we can hold a similar upper level look in the coming days it’s game on for the southeast US, all it takes is 1.
BHS1975
Member
Micheal 2?
Henry2326
Member
18z ICON at same position as Euro for 9/24.
BHS1975
Member
Gulf untouched aswell.
Too much to iron out, but probably not. Michael really was the perfect storm, with a perfect environment and track to make a historic landfall. With Michael there was a huge moisture plume in place from the big ridge that would not die; here is about the opposite with lots of dry air entrenched across the southern states, shear would likely be a problem close to landfall as well. However much like Michael, the more eastward it would stay the stronger it would likely be at landfall if you take the environment verbatim.
Also you don’t need a Michael like setup to get a crushing hit.
weather bubba
Member
The wave behind the disturbance everyone is watching that just came off the coast of Africa looks interesting too. It looks healthy and might be something to keep an eye on.
Taylor C
Member
The NAVGEM is the model I am siding with at this time with Fiona's impact on the environment.
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Does anyone know the average amount of storms per year since record keeping began off of the top of their heads?
Snow_chaser
Member
Sorry if it’s off topic, but I remember less than a month before Michael hit, I was in PCB on vacay. Guess where I am at right now? Sitting on balcony at Orange Beach AL
There’s probably going to be another nuke on the 0z GFS after Fiona exits. 7 days from now that area highlighted by the NHC is already at 967mb west of Jamaica.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The 6z GFS is probably the most likely solution based on the pattern we are in.
Henry2326
Member
That really isn’t that far of a spread when you consider the system hasn’t even developed yet. Also the Euro and GFS continue to be in strong agreement.
Ton of agreement with the 6z GEFS in Florida.
This actually may be the one. Crazy how far south this is and may even brush the coast of South America, if it survives the graveyard of the Atlantic (which all signs indicate it should) really no exit route at that point. Then it becomes all about environmental conditions, land interactions, etc on just how strong or weak it will be.
Shaggy
Member
Landfall that far south very rarely ever translates into any fun winds here. We could use the rain but it's almost deer season and dry is fine right now. We would need a miracle like some sort of jet help to get the wind up this far
LickWx
Member
Or a hard turn . It’s ours . Watch the Atlantic .
iGRXY
Member
The eastern side of the Gulf up the Apps probably should really watch this very carefully. We are transitioning into a fall time pattern with a lot of toughs swinging through and this is just begging to be picked up pulled NE once it gets into the Gulf.
Shaggy
Member
Possible and the gefs had plenty of members east of Florida at 6z
Euro and GFS worlds apart on development however, end result very similar but the euro very slow development and GFS has a TC within 48 hrs... I'd lean Euro here. That slow development could have track impact down the line, time will tell
LickWx
Member
Need it to strengthen up fast . If that happens maybe . Just maybe .I mean anything is possible....... rare but possible
Taylor C
Member
The area is looking very disturbed this morning on satellite with a lot of strong thunderstorm activity.
Yeah pretty vigorous this morning, let's see who wins the first forecast battle.... GFS with early development or not
Taylor C
Member
This may bring more rain to PR and the COC could pass relatively close if this tracks in the wake of Fiona as some guidance suggest. The operational NAVGEM remains steady with this idea and has support from the GFS ensembles.
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Shaggy
Member
Hopefully they will invest it soon so we can get a thread started for it
Of course this would come at the worst time for my family. We're supposed to race our wiener dog at the Cary Oktoberfest on October 1st. If the GFS was right, this would be the look at race time:
Luckly things will/may change as we get closer.
Henry2326
Member
Goodness gracious....12z GFS
Henry2326
Member
Thanks