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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

NOAA just put their new supercomputers online back in late June that were supposed to improve their forecast capability and accuracy on a major scale according to the press briefing. Perhaps this is the reason that the GFS was able to sniff out the lack of activity in the Atlantic ahead of the Euro which was showing a storm in early August. Could this computer upgrade be a gamechanger in the battle of the models?
 
weather bubba said:
NOAA just put their new supercomputers online back in late June that were supposed to improve their forecast capability and accuracy on a major scale according to the press briefing. Perhaps this is the reason that the GFS was able to sniff out the lack of activity in the Atlantic ahead of the Euro which was showing a storm in early August. Could this computer upgrade be a gamechanger in the battle of the models?
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I doubt it. The GFS hasn’t really improved much on the model verification scores.
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So EPS goes silent and GEFS making some noise now?
 
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lexxnchloe said:
If the white is moist air is the blue area shrinking? I hope so.
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No that blue are is dry air. Yes it’s shrinking but it’s still too large of an area of dry air to allow for anything to develop from African waves. I think we’re still a good two weeks or so from having to worry about any development
 
Honestly I could see it being fewer storms but more quality though. I mean a season of 20 fish interests no one ? that seems to be the idea lately. If we get 1 or 2 big US storms it won't matter how many we really have tbh
 
Brent said:
Honestly I could see it being fewer storms but more quality though. I mean a season of 20 fish interests no one ? that seems to be the idea lately. If we get 1 or 2 big US storms it won't matter how many we really have tbh
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This is so true. When you think of the 1992 season, no one remembers how few storms there were, because everyone remembers the first one… Andrew
 
Chazwin said:
This is so true. When you think of the 1992 season, no one remembers how few storms there were, because everyone remembers the first one… Andrew
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And Andrew almost died in the Atlantic... In mid August... The first storm of the year in mid August. It had like a 1015 mb pressure when recon went out (pretty much was dead) about 5 days before it hit Miami as a 5

2004 is another one... Nothing til the end of July then 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks in Florida

Harvey was dead a week before it blew up and hit Texas too and then Irma followed quick. Things flip fast out there

Last year Ida pretty much blew up in 3-4 days. The latter two examples were literally in late August

I mean maybe we get lucky... The last thing anyone needs is a major in the Gulf for obvious reasons(gas prices are finally heading the right way!) but I'm not holding my breath when the water temps are 90 degrees
 
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Brent said:
And Andrew almost died in the Atlantic... In mid August... The first storm of the year in mid August. It had like a 1015 mb pressure when recon went out (pretty much was dead) about 5 days before it hit Miami as a 5

2004 is another one... Nothing til the end of July then 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks in Florida

Harvey was dead a week before it blew up and hit Texas too and then Irma followed quick. Things flip fast out there

Last year Ida pretty much blew up in 3-4 days. The latter two examples were literally in late August

I mean maybe we get lucky... The last thing anyone needs is a major in the Gulf for obvious reasons(gas prices are finally heading the right way!) but I'm not holding my breath when the water temps are 90 degrees
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Not quite.

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NoSnowATL said:
On TWC Jim Cantore thinks this year won’t live up to its predictions. He said if we don’t start seeing systems develop by Aug 10th we would need 2 storms a week to hit the marks. RIP
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How much did he say the season was going to go down? Is it too late to have a season like 1998?
 
lexxnchloe said:
How much did he say the season was going to go down? Is it too late to have a season like 1998?
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Nobody knows for sure how it will go it's all guesses but I still say fewer quality storms(say 1 or 2 big ones that hit the US) would be a bigger deal than 30 storms that never bother anyone

1998 didn't even have Bonnie til mid August btw.... We're already looking for Danielle. The whole season is in front of us still for what is 90 percent of the impactful storms. If this season doesn't pan out it's pure luck imo all the other signs are there. La Nina... Near record warm water temps close to the US...
 
Brent said:
Long way to go still like I've said. Many seasons have flipped in mid late August

It may not happen but on July 31st impossible to say for sure
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Many seasons we don't even see a named storm till August. I would maybe lean away from a hyperactive season at this point but lots can still happen.
 
Shaggy said:
Many seasons we don't even see a named storm till August. I would maybe lean away from a hyperactive season at this point but lots can still happen.
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Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least
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It's easy to bust on the high end when it comes especially to hurricanes. Too much dust, dry air, shear, can all ruin a forecast for a hyperactive season. I use to never expect anything until August and had a sigh of relief after Sept 25th or so in the past because most of our canes hit in that 3 week peak season. Now I don't relax until mid October as we've seen some strong storms later in the season.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah last few years have kind of spoiled us, we've forgotten it really doesn't get going till mid August at least
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Yeah let's not forget Sandy Michael Matthew... All in October... There's definitely been some backloaded seasons lately

I remember a couple weeks before Katrina people wondering if the Gulf would ever have a hurricane again...(yeah even 2005 had a lull in late July and early mid August)

Long way to go. It may not get going but things can flip very fast especially latter half of August
 
Brent said:
Yeah let's not forget Sandy Michael Matthew... All in October... There's definitely been some backloaded seasons lately

I remember a couple weeks before Katrina people wondering if the Gulf would ever have a hurricane again...(yeah even 2005 had a lull in late July and early mid August)

Long way to go. It may not get going but things can flip very fast especially latter half of August
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Don't forget Joaquin for October monsters.
 
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