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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

HSVweather said:
Yeah, it’s just been fun to post and follow even though there is little to no chance to verify at this point.
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Oh I totally get that. I've been fascinated too especially considering it's the first real model storm we've had. Just a sign that the season is coming fast and everyone is pretty much expecting a busy one

And I still wouldn't rule out some sloppy storm here but yeah the bar was always pretty low for May
 
Snowfan said:
There's three things that happen in life.
Death
Taxes
and GFS forming hurricanes in 50 kt wind shear in May.
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The only thing though, the GFS doesn’t have a hurricane forming in 50knt shear. The image above showing 50knts of shear is picking up on the well established anticyclone over the hurricane. If you notice the Euro is showing the same thing, only the anticyclone is over the weaker storm forming to the south.

Not saying there won’t be shear in the gulf or the GFS is right, but that isn’t a good image to try to prove the GFS is wrong. Those shear maps are mostly garbage because of this reason.
 
HSVweather said:
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It hurts me to say this cause I love Hurricanetrack, but I think comparing the current 12z GFS run to a single 12z GFS run initialized last Thursday is kind of amateurish for Mr. Suddath. Todays, 12z run are right in line with some of the 00z-18z Operational Runs that were initialized between May 11 to 13th of last week. The GFS has been incredibly consistent for the past 8-12 days, and has had some support from other models that are coming within range. I'd say there's 30-40% shot this forms on the Atlantic Side.
 
Tornadocane said:
It hurts me to say this cause I love Hurricanetrack, but I think comparing the current 12z GFS run to a single 12z GFS run initialized last Thursday is kind of amateurish for Mr. Suddath. Todays, 12z run are right in line with some of the 00z-18z Operational Runs that were initialized between May 11 to 13th of last week. The GFS has been incredibly consistent for the past 8-12 days, and has had some support from other models that are coming within range. I'd say there's 30-40% shot this forms on the Atlantic Side.
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I agree 100% I believe a name storm is coming from this may be sloppy but named. Also I can see this in the gulf for sure.
 
18Z GFS now has it in the southern gulf at 06Z on 30-May. That same time on 12Z it was at Cleveland, OH. I don’t trust the long range GFS until we get into 7 days and other models have some run to run consistency to agree with it.
 
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