HSVweather
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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Brent
Member
Ida retired and replaced by Imani in 2027
I'll withhold my thoughts on why this is the case.....it's not popular around these parts.
Detective WX
Member
Not to open a can of worms here, but we running out of "I" names... Soon, there won't be any "I" names at all at this clip.
Brent
Member
Oh no argument there. It's getting so bad there's been talk in other places about getting rid of I names
Even when we went Greek in 2020 the I name got retired!
brendan123
Member
Will be in Miami for college starting in August, could get interesting depending on how this season turns out. Hasn't been a storm down there since Irma though, hoping that trend continues.
Brent
Member
GFS trying to show something again in the super long range
HSVweather
Member
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm starting to get a little intrigued. Something weak could definitely pop with the Gulf stream on that track
Alex is the first name
Brent
Member
GFS still showing a chance at Alex end of next week
Downeastnc
Member
HSVweather
Member
06z GFS
HSVweather
Member
12Z GFS still has something but develops it later and much further south, of course this is all voodoo/lala land lol
HSVweather
Member
18Z GFS
That's a weird track.
HSVweather
Member
Yeah, long range GFS being weird. It was still there GFS 0Z so the signal is consistent, for now
HSVweather
Member
0Z GFS
HSVweather
Member
6Z has it much weaker and forming around Cuba before fading away in the GoM
HSVweather
Member
LOL, 12Z GFS gone mad
Tornadocane
Member
I've been watching the tropical wave during this time frame for the last several days due to the rain potential, and the GFS has slowly trended towards this North Caribbean Wave/Central American Gyre dance that consolidates in the Caribbean instead of the East Pacific. The climate always favors the East PAC this time of year, but I think the GFS has been sensing better dynamics and upper level environment in the Western Caribbean. The 200-400Mb Q-Div, Stream Function Map illustrates a much better convective pattern over the Caribbean for tropical cyclone consolidation, and that area just so happens to be an area with rapidly warming SSTs that will be just to the SE of what remains of in the Gulf from our cut-off low that moves out over the next couple days. It creates one of those mini-troughs under a high pressure in the Gulf that keeps lower pressures in the Western Caribbean.
Needless to say, the May 19-24 period has my attention.
Look at the GIF from 84-150 Hours. You see the trough in the Gulf become the catalyst for convection and lower pressures in the West Caribbean with the convergence zone setting between it and the Upper Level Ridge, and then you see the excellent divergence at the end when the Ridge moves into the area. Later on another shortwave trough forms in the Gulf, and we get one of the early-season hybrid cyclone with a lopsided rain-shield. You can see the upper level energy digging under the system. On the Relative Humidity Map, the upper level energy is also accompanied by dry air that wraps around the system.
Needless to say, the May 19-24 period has my attention.
Look at the GIF from 84-150 Hours. You see the trough in the Gulf become the catalyst for convection and lower pressures in the West Caribbean with the convergence zone setting between it and the Upper Level Ridge, and then you see the excellent divergence at the end when the Ridge moves into the area. Later on another shortwave trough forms in the Gulf, and we get one of the early-season hybrid cyclone with a lopsided rain-shield. You can see the upper level energy digging under the system. On the Relative Humidity Map, the upper level energy is also accompanied by dry air that wraps around the system.
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