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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

Snowfan said:
Does the Gulf of Mexico support a Category 2+ storm in May?
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It has never had one. In fact the strongest Atlantic hurricane in May was only 90 mph/973 mb and out in the open Atlantic. The only thing remotely close would probably be Alex 2010 but still even it was the end of June

So yeah the 18z GFS would be totally unprecedented
 
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Snowfan said:
Does the Gulf of Mexico support a Category 2+ storm in May?
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Probably

5a6e6a653e7f5d5c78ff7070ff51c4fa.jpg



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One of the first fantasy tropical entities making landfall, is a Shetley special! 209BEC6D-7F8B-4237-902A-44020A68B293.png
 
I am trying really hard to ignore the long range GFS, then I remind myself the long range GFS actually did pretty damn good last year sniffing out threats......need this to track more east after landfall if it actually happens eastern NC would actually benefit from the rain....
 
Maybe long range until LF, but it’s starts @168 mark in the Caribbean.
 
Brent said:
Well we get tropical weather outlooks starting tomorrow so we'll probably know pretty quick if the NHC believes anything here

I'm very skeptical of a strong system though but something weak could definitely pop
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A weak slow system would be a God send for the SE.
 
HSVweather said:
Yeah, it’s just been fun to post and follow even though there is little to no chance to verify at this point.
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Oh I totally get that. I've been fascinated too especially considering it's the first real model storm we've had. Just a sign that the season is coming fast and everyone is pretty much expecting a busy one

And I still wouldn't rule out some sloppy storm here but yeah the bar was always pretty low for May
 
Snowfan said:
There's three things that happen in life.
Death
Taxes
and GFS forming hurricanes in 50 kt wind shear in May.
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The only thing though, the GFS doesn’t have a hurricane forming in 50knt shear. The image above showing 50knts of shear is picking up on the well established anticyclone over the hurricane. If you notice the Euro is showing the same thing, only the anticyclone is over the weaker storm forming to the south.

Not saying there won’t be shear in the gulf or the GFS is right, but that isn’t a good image to try to prove the GFS is wrong. Those shear maps are mostly garbage because of this reason.
 
HSVweather said:
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It hurts me to say this cause I love Hurricanetrack, but I think comparing the current 12z GFS run to a single 12z GFS run initialized last Thursday is kind of amateurish for Mr. Suddath. Todays, 12z run are right in line with some of the 00z-18z Operational Runs that were initialized between May 11 to 13th of last week. The GFS has been incredibly consistent for the past 8-12 days, and has had some support from other models that are coming within range. I'd say there's 30-40% shot this forms on the Atlantic Side.
 
Tornadocane said:
It hurts me to say this cause I love Hurricanetrack, but I think comparing the current 12z GFS run to a single 12z GFS run initialized last Thursday is kind of amateurish for Mr. Suddath. Todays, 12z run are right in line with some of the 00z-18z Operational Runs that were initialized between May 11 to 13th of last week. The GFS has been incredibly consistent for the past 8-12 days, and has had some support from other models that are coming within range. I'd say there's 30-40% shot this forms on the Atlantic Side.
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I agree 100% I believe a name storm is coming from this may be sloppy but named. Also I can see this in the gulf for sure.
 
18Z GFS now has it in the southern gulf at 06Z on 30-May. That same time on 12Z it was at Cleveland, OH. I don’t trust the long range GFS until we get into 7 days and other models have some run to run consistency to agree with it.
 
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