Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

[LovingGulfLows]

LOL, 12Z GFS gone mad
View attachment 118399

18z is even more ridiculous. GFS is definitely locked in this period for something to develop.

 

[HSVweather]

18z is even more ridiculous. GFS is definitely locked in this period for something to develop.

No kidding! Gets down to 950mb lol

 

[BHS1975]

No kidding! Gets down to 950mb lol
View attachment 118408

Damn. It's trying to take out NO before the season even starts.


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[Snowfan]

Does the Gulf of Mexico support a Category 2+ storm in May?

 

[Brent]

Does the Gulf of Mexico support a Category 2+ storm in May?

It has never had one. In fact the strongest Atlantic hurricane in May was only 90 mph/973 mb and out in the open Atlantic. The only thing remotely close would probably be Alex 2010 but still even it was the end of June

So yeah the 18z GFS would be totally unprecedented

 

[BHS1975]

Does the Gulf of Mexico support a Category 2+ storm in May?

Probably

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[Tarheel1]

One of the first fantasy tropical entities making landfall, is a Shetley special!

 

[Downeastnc]

I am trying really hard to ignore the long range GFS, then I remind myself the long range GFS actually did pretty damn good last year sniffing out threats......need this to track more east after landfall if it actually happens eastern NC would actually benefit from the rain....

 

[accu35]

Maybe long range until LF, but it’s starts @168 mark in the Caribbean.

 

[Brent]

Probably

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Yeah surface temps could but would the wind shear dry air is the bigger question. The Gulf can always support a hurricane by now but like it's never happened before in May for whatever reason

 

[HSVweather]

18Z GFS, got down to 972

 

[HSVweather]

 

[HSVweather]

12Z GFS has our system developing in the Caribbean in a week ?

 

[SD]

12Z GFS has our system developing in the Caribbean in a week ?
View attachment 118462

The 12z icon (wave/moisture plume) and cmc (wave/ weak development) both put a toe in the water as well

 

[Brent]

Well we get tropical weather outlooks starting tomorrow so we'll probably know pretty quick if the NHC believes anything here

I'm very skeptical of a strong system though but something weak could definitely pop

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Arcc]

Well we get tropical weather outlooks starting tomorrow so we'll probably know pretty quick if the NHC believes anything here

I'm very skeptical of a strong system though but something weak could definitely pop

A weak slow system would be a God send for the SE.

 

[Brent]

Into the Florida Peninsula this run

 

[Downeastnc]

NC got it's first fantasy land hit last night on the 00Z, the farmers down here would be ok with this for sure....

 

[HSVweather]