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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

Brick Tamland

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Not as excited now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png
 

Brent

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An area of low pressure is expected to develop by the middle part
of this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development of this system is possible while it drifts generally
northwestward off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...20 percent.
 

accu35

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An area of low pressure is expected to develop by the middle part
of this week over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow
development of this system is possible while it drifts generally
northwestward off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...20 percent.
Last couple of gefs runs has this storm further north in the gulf. Something to watch
 

Brent

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I know it's early to be looking at the Atlantic but what does the Sahara dust flow coming off Africa look like? It seems that in recent years it has put a cap on early development in the Atlantic.

There's some right now but that's very typical this time of year. It usually decreases towards August which ironically coincides with when the real season starts. You can still see development in between rounds though
 

jeremyt

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Don't think they will make it across as climatology speaking its too early from that area, but who knows. How much SAL does everyone think they will erode?
 

Brent

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A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_atl_5d0 (8).png
 
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