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Tropical 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread

Brent said:
Oh I'm sure there will be storms at some point I'm just saying I'm done believing model fantasies ?
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The weather nerd in me says if the gfs has been this horrible at showing fake fantasy storms it could be just as bad as picking up initialization and we get a short term surprise that it has missed.
 
Shaggy said:
The weather nerd in me says if the gfs has been this horrible at showing fake fantasy storms it could be just as bad as picking up initialization and we get a short term surprise that it has missed.
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Oh for sure. I mean look at the Gulf thing it wasn't hyped up on the models and very nearly became a thing(wouldn't surprise me in postseason if they declare it)

And tbh things closer to home are much more likely to become a problem anyway. It's a lot harder to get an African wave all the way across to the position(yeah they happen but there's a lot more that don't bother anyone)
 
Brent said:
Oh for sure. I mean look at the Gulf thing it wasn't hyped up on the models and very nearly became a thing(wouldn't surprise me in postseason if they declare it)

And tbh things closer to home are much more likely to become a problem anyway. It's a lot harder to get an African wave all the way across to the position(yeah they happen but there's a lot more that don't bother anyone)
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And just like that the 0z is back to producing a cane in the long range.
 
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Easterlies in the deep MDR relaxing substantially as well, which is one reason for the lower dust transport.
 
I did see a major hurricane off the eastern seaboard at around hour 300 on the GFS this morning. That being said this is the GFS model we are talking about and hour 300 is jumping a bit into the future.
 
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While the op run has a stout hurricane recurring the 06z gefs had different idea.
 

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lexxnchloe said:
You got me excited so i went to look and the hurricane is further east at 06Z than it was at 0Z
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For comparison this 384 hrs on 0z and 6z. Far more activity far closer to the east coast and gom between them. This is still 384hrs but just goes to show how different the ensemble was.from the op.
 

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I would keep an eye out on the second system coming up from the Caribbean into the gulf. Gfs has been showing this a few runs now and little stronger each run. If continues, then I expect the gefs start catching on to this one.
 
We're 3-0-0 and 45 days since a TC advisory was last issued and halfway up the peak of hurricane season and there's barely anything that can form. Truly one of the slowest hurricane seasons in decades so far. And IF toughing sets up and stays over the E us through early sept, there likely will at best be one or 2 OTS storms at best through the peak. Chances are we'll stay under 10 storms this season if the trends keep up.
 
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This is the one to watch a homegrown. This is about 3 or 4 runs in a row now.
 
Arcc said:
Unless something changes, gonna be major dry air issues as it approaches the mainland unless something changes. Could be really good for rain making though.
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accu35 said:
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This is the one to watch a homegrown. This is about 3 or 4 runs in a row now.
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Has about 10% support from the eps which isn't bad. The evolution of it kicking out of a larger gyre is always problematic and in wouldn't get too locked into anything until about 5 days from today once what kicks out of resolved
 
Arcc said:
Unless something changes, gonna be major dry air issues as it approaches the mainland unless something changes. Could be really good for rain making though.
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Well if it’s dry air than it still has a 961mb at landfall
 
SD said:
Has about 10% support from the eps which isn't bad. The evolution of it kicking out of a larger gyre is always problematic and in wouldn't get too locked into anything until about 5 days from today once what kicks out of resolved
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I agree
 
accu35 said:
I agree
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Yeah the cmc has it but it's west and has a ton of land interaction. We've seen this setup go both ways recently. Laura is a good example of a stronger eastern vort that avoided land interaction and made a US landfall
 
Quite a bit of dry air out in the Atlantic. Models have thrown these 10 day GOM storms around off and on for a while now. Troughing continues to want to drop into the east through the period. I still feel like it will be quite a while before we have a legitimate system to track (that has a chance to have a large impact to the US).
 
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