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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Yep this one is coming I think the last big hurrah for the USA...could be a major hit for Florida
 
That escalated quickly. So the 18z GFS has the first storm interacting with front in a manner that would impact South Florida with some convective bands within 4 days? Thanks 2020.
 
00z GFS Para.....lord a moses......6 lows moving around. Nothing really substantial (except for 1 that dies off) with any of them but something for everyone throughout the gulf and eastern coastline to watch.

It reminds me of the finale of a fireworks show.
 
Nothing excites me with the tropics, gulf is destroying it all
 
Whereas the 0Z EPS had only ~7 sub 1000 mb Gulf storms from the two waves, the 12Z EPS has ~13 (25%) sub 1000 mb storms. Most of the geneses are by 10/8. 3 sub 1000 hit LA and 5 sub 1000 hit the area from the FL Panhandle to Big Bend making that area the highest risk on this run. Climo suggests 2 areas at highest risk of landfall from storms that form in the W Caribbean or Gulf in early Oct: S FL and the Gulf coast from LA east to the FL Big Bend. This run is suggesting the Gulf coast area may be at highest risk this year, but that’s just speculation based on this run.

However, though just speculation, the 12Z GEFS sort of agrees regarding sub 1000 mb landfalls from its 31 members with 2 TX, 7 LA to FL Big Bend, and 2 SW FL.

The importance of these runs is that this implies a not so small chance that there will be a N Gulf coast landfall that will subsequently significantly affect many of the well inland active members here at some point, most likely within or near 10/10-14. If anyone here is planning on outdoor activities around 10/10-14, you probably should monitor the tropics extra carefully. To add to this, history shows that in or near that period has had many times when the SE had significant inland effects from earlier Gulf landfalls.

Members in well inland places like Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, the Gainesvilles, and Raleigh among others would be well advised to monitor the tropics for potential significant effects from an earlier Gulf coast landfalling TC. It isn’t just the coasts that could be significantly affected.
 
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12z GEFS: area most at risk from TS+ from SE LA to Sarasota with 6 hits in there 10/8-12 from whatever systems.
 
This isn't from TD 25 but rather is from the followup system now in the Caribbean. it is the CMC so it is just fwiw. But the trend of model consensus has been for the N Gulf to be at highest risk, which would have significant implications for many on here for some point most likely within 10/10-14 as stated yesterday:

1601661434685.png
 
This LLC is clearly open or greatly elongated to the N or NW side as I can see it on Visible Satellite to the NW of the deep convection. I don't think the upper level low is over the storm right now, and the LLC is going to get blasted with greater shear the further west or NW it goes.
 
This isn't from TD 25 but rather is from the followup system now in the Caribbean. it is the CMC so it is just fwiw. But the trend of model consensus has been for the N Gulf to be at highest risk, which would have significant implications for many on here for some point most likely within 10/10-14 as stated yesterday:

View attachment 49674

I have to completely agree with the CMC depiction of events, because it's current placement of the ULAC to East of TD25 looks the most correct right now. The GFS has the ULAC over 25, but that just isn't the case anymore.
 
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