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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GaWx

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Check out the 240 hour 12Z Euro for something that is interesting though it likely won't actually happen: Paulette ends up SE of future Teddy: yes, that's Paulette way out there near 30N, 44W!

 

GaWx

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How could it get back there in 10 days? And what is that between bermuda and the bahamas?
1. A big clockwise loop. I’m not saying I believe it will do so at
least as an intact system.

2. Ridge over troubled water type of homegrown. That’s a homegrown to the S of a big high.
 

GaWx

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A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

 

Downeastnc

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A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

06Z GFS was really close to doing something with that and with the ridge sliding east it would steer anything that formed there into SC/NC, probably to close to become a huge deal but the GFS evolution looked very Diana 84 to me obviously without the Cat 3 strength
 

GaWx

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6Z EPS through 144: new wave just off Africa is quite far to the south and remains pretty far south through 144 meaning chance of recurving well OTS not as high as its MDR predecessors. Of course, Teddy was modeled to move similarly when it was still in W Africa and that changed a good bit. Unlike Teddy, no model develops this that rapidly. So, it may stay weak for quite awhile and thus stay further south. I’m still currently more concerned about home brew next week but that’s beside the point:

1E0F725E-25EA-49B5-8BE1-83F1DFE3B24E.gif

Edit: note the interesting sharp right turn Paulette is progged to take. Also note the W GOM activity as well as additional TW that will come off Africa further north.
 
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Brent

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Wilfred?

Crazy to think very soon were gonna be on Alpha watch... Didn't happen til late October in 2005

A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development
of the system this week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 

Downeastnc

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Euro and GFS both have that low off the SE coast in surprisingly good agreement in 240 probably wont amount to much but with the way
home grown storms have come up this year........

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat.conus.png
 

GaWx

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6Z EPS through 144: new wave just off Africa is quite far to the south and remains pretty far south through 144 meaning chance of recurving well OTS not as high as its MDR predecessors. Of course, Teddy was modeled to move similarly when it was still in W Africa and that changed a good bit. Unlike Teddy, no model develops this that rapidly. So, it may stay weak for quite awhile and thus stay further south. I’m still currently more concerned about home brew next week but that’s beside the point:

View attachment 48525

Edit: note the interesting sharp right turn Paulette is progged to take. Also note the W GOM activity as well as additional TW that will come off Africa further north.

For the wave just off Africa, this 12Z EPS, out to 240, looks similar to how it looked on the 6Z run at 138. Afterward, most members either recurve or continue westward and weaken:

 

Brick Tamland

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Unless something pops up off the coast like Sally did, it looks like we could go the rest of the season without anything hitting land. All the ones that are out there now that came from waves off Africa look to weaken or curve out to sea. It is hard to believe that with all the systems we have had this year that we could luck out and only have one major hurricane make landfall.
 

Henry2326

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Unless something pops up off the coast like Sally did, it looks like we could go the rest of the season without anything hitting land. All the ones that are out there now that came from waves off Africa look to weaken or curve out to sea. It is hard to believe that with all the systems we have had this year that we could luck out and only have one major hurricane make landfall.
I'm not holding my breath.....its not done yet.
 
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