1. A big clockwise loop. I’m not saying I believe it will do so atHow could it get back there in 10 days? And what is that between bermuda and the bahamas?
06Z GFS was really close to doing something with that and with the ridge sliding east it would steer anything that formed there into SC/NC, probably to close to become a huge deal but the GFS evolution looked very Diana 84 to me obviously without the Cat 3 strengthA bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:
6Z EPS through 144: new wave just off Africa is quite far to the south and remains pretty far south through 144 meaning chance of recurving well OTS not as high as its MDR predecessors. Of course, Teddy was modeled to move similarly when it was still in W Africa and that changed a good bit. Unlike Teddy, no model develops this that rapidly. So, it may stay weak for quite awhile and thus stay further south. I’m still currently more concerned about home brew next week but that’s beside the point:
View attachment 48525
Edit: note the interesting sharp right turn Paulette is progged to take. Also note the W GOM activity as well as additional TW that will come off Africa further north.
I'm not holding my breath.....its not done yet.Unless something pops up off the coast like Sally did, it looks like we could go the rest of the season without anything hitting land. All the ones that are out there now that came from waves off Africa look to weaken or curve out to sea. It is hard to believe that with all the systems we have had this year that we could luck out and only have one major hurricane make landfall.