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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

18z GFS shows the same wave as ICON at the islands but does nothing with it....

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Speaking of doing nothing with the wave coming off Africa, here’s the GFS from week ago and you’ll see no Laura at all: makes me wonder if the GFS is once again blind to an actual future development of this wave:

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It isn’t much, but the 0Z GEFS has 3 members with weak TCs from the wave just coming off Africa. Prior runs had none except the 18Z in the Gulf:

6B83A41C-D4BA-453B-956A-61F12FD61A54.png
 
The 00Z GFS had this at the end of the run......any other year and I would be like meh but this season its more like when rather than if....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png
 
I know it’s far out, but what are the trends for this storm? Is it setting up to be a fish?


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No trends really at this point....the chances the GFS even has it sniffed out correctly is suspect in this range.....but given the setup and potential there is a strong chance there will be several if not many storms over the next 4-6 weeks.....
 
No trends really at this point....the chances the GFS even has it sniffed out correctly is suspect in this range.....but given the setup and potential there is a strong chance there will be several if not many storms over the next 4-6 weeks.....
Yeah, I agree, maybe not that scenario, but the 00z EPS makes a lot of noise.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-mslp_ens_min-9782400.png
 
Another person today here in Florida “ I’m glad hurricane season is ending and we didn’t get anything” what are people thinking??


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We literally are not even to the peak of hurricane season yet. I would be shocked if Florida doesn't end up getting anything through the end of November. This kind of ignorance hits a nerve for me.
 
At the end of the 12z ICON, it has a Caribbean cruiser at hurricane strength.
 
the other wave is now mentioned

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A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower activity. Although environmental conditions are
not expected to be conducive for development during the next couple
of days, they are forecast to gradually become more favorable over
the weekend and into early next week when the wave moves into the
central and then western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days as
it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
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