Whereas the 0Z EPS had only ~7 sub 1000 mb Gulf storms from the two waves, the 12Z EPS has ~13 (25%) sub 1000 mb storms. Most of the geneses are by 10/8. 3 sub 1000 hit LA and 5 sub 1000 hit the area from the FL Panhandle to Big Bend making that area the highest risk on this run. Climo suggests 2 areas at highest risk of landfall from storms that form in the W Caribbean or Gulf in early Oct: S FL and the Gulf coast from LA east to the FL Big Bend. This run is suggesting the Gulf coast area may be at highest risk this year, but that’s just speculation based on this run.
However, though just speculation, the 12Z GEFS sort of agrees regarding sub 1000 mb landfalls from its 31 members with 2 TX, 7 LA to FL Big Bend, and 2 SW FL.
The importance of these runs is that this implies a not so small chance that there will be a N Gulf coast landfall that will subsequently significantly affect many of the well inland active members here at some point, most likely within or near 10/10-14. If anyone here is planning on outdoor activities around 10/10-14, you probably should monitor the tropics extra carefully. To add to this, history shows that in or near that period has had many times when the SE had significant inland effects from earlier Gulf landfalls.
Members in well inland places like Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia, the Gainesvilles, and Raleigh among others would be well advised to monitor the tropics for potential significant effects from an earlier Gulf coast landfalling TC. It isn’t just the coasts that could be significantly affected.