• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

BHS1975 said:
With the number of storms we have forming in these hostile conditions it’s going to be a September to remember when conditions take a 180.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Heck it's still entirely realistic Laura puts on a show
 
Per the 12Z EPS, the next potential threat is the one that the 12Z Euro is recurving. The 12Z EPS says not so fast as it has two camps, recurving and not: Most of the ones that don't recurve either directly threaten the SE/E coast or linger nearby 9/6-7.

So, if I had to wild guess, I'd say that the next potential threat to the SE/Gulf after Laura/Marco will be around 9/5-10. So, maybe not that long of a break unfortunately even though we could use one.

Note that on the map below that the member over N FL is actually from an earlier wave, possibly from Laura coming back west into FL though I'm not sure it is from Laura. Also, the one over N GA came from the Gulf and is from an MDR wave preceding the MDR wave I think may lead to the next threat, not from Laura.


1598213332763.png

Here is the 12Z EPS day 10 mean 500H:

1598213962470.png

Now move ahead to hour 360:
1598214039866.png

1598214065153.png

Edit: The GFS suites have very little from the wave on the Euro suite.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Per the 12Z EPS, the next potential threat is the one that the 12Z Euro is recurving. The 12Z EPS says not so fast as it has two camps, recurving and not: Most of the ones that don't recurve either directly threaten the SE/E coast or linger nearby 9/6-7.

So, if I had to wild guess, I'd say that the next potential threat to the SE/Gulf after Laura/Marco will be around 9/5-10. So, maybe not that long of a break unfortunately even though we could use one.

Note that on the map below that the member over N FL is actually from an earlier wave, possibly from Laura coming back west into FL though I'm not sure it is from Laura. Also, the one over N GA came from the Gulf and is from an MDR wave preceding the MDR wave I think may lead to the next threat, not from Laura.


View attachment 47048

Here is the 12Z EPS day 10 mean 500H:

View attachment 47049

Now move ahead to hour 360:
View attachment 47050

View attachment 47051

Edit: The GFS suites have very little from the wave on the Euro suite.
Click to expand...
Dang....dejavu....
 
Houston or Brownsville or New Orleans or Biloxi or Panama City or Miami or West Palm or Daytona or Hatteras or NYC or Boston or wherever, we may have still another problem:
0Z EPS at 324 (or 9/6): all of these originate from a wave projected to exit Africa around Thursday of this week (8/27):

1598255556062.png
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Houston or Brownsville or New Orleans or Biloxi or Panama City or Miami or West Palm or Daytona or Hatteras or NYC or Boston or wherever, we may have still another problem:
0Z EPS at 324 (or 9/6): all of these originate from a wave projected to exit Africa around Thursday of this week (8/27):

View attachment 47079
Click to expand...
The setup on the 00z Control is interesting as well.
8627022D-4845-455F-90D5-7552042707CB.png
 
The same threat is on the 6Z EPS as far out as it goes (144 hours): cxompare 6Z on top with 0Z below it: The wave in question is one coming off Africa in about 3 days (Thursday 8/27).

1598274607016.png

1598274716738.png
 
Last edited:
Hour 240 on euro watch out Bahamas and maybe Florida ??
 
12Z CMC strongly develops this same wave that moves off Africa ~Thursday but fortunately it recurves harmlessly way out at 55W:

1598288157339.png

The 12Z GFS brings this same wave all of the way to just off FL without developing it.
 
Unlike the last 2 long range EPS runs, the 12Z GEFS, like recent GEFS runs, does little with that Thursday African wave while still east of the SE. However, note the 500 mb flow at the time the EPS has it get close to the SE US...i.e., a totally open door. So, we'd better hope there is nothing nearby then. The 12Z GEFS has westerly steering like the following map shows from 9/3 through the end of the run:

1598289451997.png

Note that the 12Z GEFS does similarly to the last few show members with a TC in the GOM from the same wave;

1598289882824.png

Also, the 12Z GEFS appears to bring in a 2nd wave westward into the SE US behind the aforementioned wave,
 
Last edited:
Regarding that wave set to move off Africa ~8/27, the 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row that significantly develops it, but like the first one and unlike the 2nd one it doesn't look to get close to the US as is starting to recurve way out there:

1598295488188.png
 
GaWx said:
Regarding that wave set to move off Africa ~8/27, the 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row that significantly develops it, but like the first one and unlike the 2nd one it doesn't look to get close to the US as is starting to recurve way out there:

View attachment 47124
Click to expand...
It unfortunately would likely bend back west 1598295675850.png
 
GaWx said:
Regarding that wave set to move off Africa ~8/27, the 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row that significantly develops it, but like the first one and unlike the 2nd one it doesn't look to get close to the US as is starting to recurve way out there:

View attachment 47124
Click to expand...
I can only see Icon out to 9/1....Will be interesting to see what it does with it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top