I think we are lucky the forecasts of a super season probably wont happen. hopefully after laura the season will end. Good thing none of those big blue areas arent in the tropics, lol.
That would be super, but highly unlikely. We have at least 6 more weeks to move through before a slow down, in my opinion. Likely next hurricane event will be week of 9/7.
It hasn't done a very good job at genesis....EPS looks extensive, although it hasn't been adequate at genesis either. CMC and Icon have done nice job at genesis so far.
October would like to have a word with you.
Yeah, the GEFS typically have a horrible time with tropical systems due to their grid spacing, for example the mean for Laura at landfall is 991mb. Their synoptic setup is more important. On the other hand, the GEFSv12 is higher res, so it tends to be a little more realistic. Does anybody have the spaghetti plots for that. Off of TT, it looks interesting.
ICON is doing a good job, I think. CMC points the way too.
The good thing about oct is very few big storms hit NC by then. Hazel did in 1954 but thats very rare. oct is florida time.
October storms are usually not as bad as August or September in the US. Opal was one notable exception. South FL is a different story though as they can still get bad canes in Oct. I think Wilma hit in Oct.
As you speak, the EPS is much more bearish than the last two runs:
