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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

00z Euro stays with MDR moving west while 06z GFS stays Carrib.
2 solutions for the same time period that couldn't be anymore different.

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The Happy Hour GEFS is saying that 2020 will have a good chance to be only the 3rd season on record going back to 1851 with 3 October W Caribbean geneses. The other two are 2005 (3rd one was Beta with genesis on 10/26) and 1870 (3rd one had genesis on 10/29). So, 2020 would by a good number of days have the earliest 3rd Oct W Car genesis on record:

DVBy7Hl.png
 
The Happy Hour GEFS is saying that 2020 will have a good chance to be only the 3rd season on record going back to 1851 with 3 October W Caribbean geneses. The other two are 2005 (3rd one was Beta with genesis on 10/26) and 1870 (3rd one had genesis on 10/29). So, 2020 would by a good number of days have the earliest 3rd Oct W Car genesis on record:

DVBy7Hl.png
Taking verbatim from that run, It doesn't look like I can change my profile picture back to the traditional Ollie anytime soon. smh
 
That wind field though....IF something like this formed and did track right up or just inland up the coast it would be horrible, the surge from such a big wind field would be insane, hell even as pictured the coastal beach erosion would be very bad in NC.....Hwy 12 would not stand a chance.

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Another area off the east coast on the EPS to possibly watch as well as the very beginning of something in the Caribbean

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That's not a good look....it feels like we have some kind of finale coming up with storms coming from different directions.

18z GFS

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18z GFS

Something tells me we won't get by this easy....

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With already 10 TC/5 H hits, the US is due for a "get by easy" storm. IF any W Caribbean storm were to go over C or E Cuba, climo would favor it to miss FL although SC north would still have some chance to be hit ala Sandy for the NE and a couple of others that hit SC/NC area. The danger for FL and perhaps @pcbjr would be from one crossing W Cuba, or going W of Cuba.
 
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