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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

GaWx said:
This EPS run is easily the most active yet, especially for 10/7-12.
:eek:


View attachment 49440

Edit: I count ~30% of the 51 members that go sub 1000 mb vs the highest on any prior run being closer to 22%.
:eek:


They appear to be centering genesis chances around 10/6-7.
Click to expand...

The subsequent two runs, the 0Z/12Z EPS of today, dropped back from ~30% to ~20%.
 
6z GFS is a disaster for s/e up into western Carolinas. Ivan like...
 
Latest CMC joins the party with hurricane strengthening in the north eastern Gulf of Mexico
 
6z gfs would be nasty for Atlanta too..right side severe and floods
 
Para makes the most sense to me tho, shots the gap as a strong hurricane and only impacts Florida, very climo like for October
 
I’m favoring strong hit west coast of Florida...the only untouched part of the US this season without any tropical watches/advisories for the Atlantic hurricane season.
 
00z GFS targets Florida and then the Carolinas. I believe this is the wave after the one the NHC is currently monitoring. Of course it is pretty far out still as well.9AC79FF7-06D0-4273-8EF7-5A571F186CA2.gif
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_49.png
I would really pay attention as this has a chance to be a northern gulf coast hit before the front pushes in.
 
BufordWX said:
00z GFS targets Florida and then the Carolinas. I believe this is the wave after the one the NHC is currently monitoring. Of course it is pretty far out still as well.View attachment 49554
Click to expand...
Here’s the wind map, if you wanted to edit your post in the archive thread.
B3E81205-FCB7-448F-B9B6-BF3FE181DA39.png
 
accu35 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_49.png
I would really pay attention as this has a chance to be a northern gulf coast hit before the front pushes in.
Click to expand...
The interaction with the front could push heavy rain well out ahead of the storm (much like Opal in ‘95), and with a trough diving in you would expect any storm there to move very quickly as well which means wind impacts would be spread hundreds of miles inland like both Opal and Michael.
 
This has a chance to destroy the fall foliage season for the Carolinas. Perfect timing.
 
Man the upslope would be killer. Would likely break state yearly record for NC given areas already in the top 5 I think Highlands is
 
Code Red
two_atl_5d0.png
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to continue moving westward over the next couple of days,
and produce a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean
Sea or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night or Friday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the
next several days where environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for development over the central or western
Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
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