Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Brent]

00z GFS targets Florida and then the Carolinas. I believe this is the wave after the one the NHC is currently monitoring. Of course it is pretty far out still as well.View attachment 49554

Quite a run there

 

[Rain Cold]

Quite a wet run.

 

[accu35]

I would really pay attention as this has a chance to be a northern gulf coast hit before the front pushes in.

 

[Ollie Williams]

00z GFS targets Florida and then the Carolinas. I believe this is the wave after the one the NHC is currently monitoring. Of course it is pretty far out still as well.View attachment 49554

Here’s the wind map, if you wanted to edit your post in the archive thread.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Chazwin]

I would really pay attention as this has a chance to be a northern gulf coast hit before the front pushes in.

The interaction with the front could push heavy rain well out ahead of the storm (much like Opal in ‘95), and with a trough diving in you would expect any storm there to move very quickly as well which means wind impacts would be spread hundreds of miles inland like both Opal and Michael.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

This has a chance to destroy the fall foliage season for the Carolinas. Perfect timing.

 

[Chazwin]

This has a chance to destroy the fall foliage season for the Carolinas. Perfect timing.

and I hate that because I’m supposed to spend the following weekend near Maggie Valley

 

[Henry2326]

12z Icon wanders around for 5 days....begins on Oct 2.

 

[Henry2326]

12z GFS similar to 06z.....this is the second wave.

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: once again no Caribbean TC genesis through 144 hours

 

[Henry2326]

12z CMC.....looks like GFS....alittle faster....

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Man the upslope would be killer. Would likely break state yearly record for NC given areas already in the top 5 I think Highlands is

 

[tstorm]

12z CMC.....looks like GFS....alittle faster....

View attachment 49576

This has it hitting the same place as Michael 2 years to the day (Oct. 10th)

 

[Henry2326]

This has it hitting the same place as Michael 2 years to the day (Oct. 10th)

Gulf Shores did the same.....history keeps repeating....

 

[Henry2326]

12z Para.....doing the step.....one goes west and one goes east.....

 

[Tornadocane]

Is Paulette still out there west of the Canary Islands?

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Code Red

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to continue moving westward over the next couple of days,
and produce a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean
Sea or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night or Friday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the
next several days where environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for development over the central or western
Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart