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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Webberweather53 said:
You'd be surprised how much we've completely screwed up even better patterns like this in the past & came away w/ next-to-nothing. Save a couple rare cases, people are only going to remember the successes of the past and failures of the present.
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If it doesn't produce then it's really not a great pattern. And these days it's harder to get snow from a supposedly great pattern than it used to be. That's my whole point. Either the pattern isn't really that great for snow, or what used to produce more often than not just doesn't anymore. It becomes a crapshoot more than anything, so it just seems pointless to me now to talk about the pattern and just hope the models show potential inside 5 days.
 
Ah, it's all just semantics. Everybody just simma dow now. :) We all want snow. Some think the upcoming is a "great pattern". Some think a great pattern is where we get well below average surface temps first (not created by the storm). Based on individual experience and data you can argue both can produce snow, which is true. It's all just preferences of what you'd like to see, so I think it's all subjective. Nobody's right and nobody's wrong I don't think.
 
It’s been great watching y’all from being off the wall ecstatic 2 days ago to ready to slit some throats yesterday. Meanwhile I’m just cooling man ! Snow no snow snow whatever ! It’s sunny today that’s all that matters rn !
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
This will be my last post to you since we can't agree to disagree. You act like you are above everyone on here and their opinion doesn't matter. And I'll say what I'm sure some on here think. You don't exactly have the best track record yourself. I've seen people with far less knowledge do just as good. Good day sir. And for the record I hope your right and I'm wrong. Time will tell. Good day sir.
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Wow who pissed in your cereal today?

You should go eat a snickers.
 
SnowNiner said:
Ah, it's all just semantics. Everybody just simma dow now. :) We all want snow. Some think the upcoming is a "great pattern". Some think a great pattern is where we get well below average surface temps first (not created by the storm). Based on individual experience and data you can argue both can produce snow, which is true. It's all just preferences of what you'd like to see, so I think it's all subjective. Nobody's right and nobody's wrong I don't think.
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Couldn't have said it better myself. I haven't seen anyone cancel winter or say it absolutely wasn't going to snow. At least I haven't. I've simply stated it doesn't look cold for the next 10 days and apparently I'm not qualified to say that.
 
Brick Tamland said:
If it doesn't produce then it's really not a great pattern. And these days it's harder to get snow from a supposedly great pattern than it used to be. That's my whole point. Either the pattern isn't really that great for snow, or what used to produce more often than not just doesn't anymore. It becomes a crapshoot more than anything, so it just seems pointless to me now to talk about the pattern and just hope the models show potential inside 5 days.
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Good or bad patterns are at best moderately correlated with snowfall on a case by case basis. it’s understanding that after a large number of repetitions of a same or similar pattern that produce some underlying expected result “x” that are more important for mets like myself.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Couldn't have said it better myself. I haven't seen anyone cancel winter or say it absolutely wasn't going to snow. At least I haven't. I've simply stated it doesn't look cold for the next 10 days and apparently I'm not qualified to say that.
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You’re always one the first to be cancelling winter on here. Even your profile name speaks volumes to your average demeanor.
 
Speaking for RDU folks the odds are in our favor we see at least 2-4 inches of snow given the median is 3.5 last 30 years. Not the blockbuster 6+ inch storm everyone wants ( not that it couldn’t happen it sure could ) but the very climatologically favored outcome , more favored than being entirely shutout. I’d be hopeful in GSO, GSP, and CLT as well aside from our Tennessee and mountain friends.

As for my friends in Atlanta , Columbia I will admit a miracle is what it will take . Well for Columbia , I think even Atlanta is climo favored for at least an inch or 2.
 
RDUs 10+ per decade has declined but the 2010's 0 wasn't really a crazy statistic improbability. It will be interesting to see if we get a positive regression in the 2020s back toward the mean
1610547304344.png

Note if years crossed decades included them in the decade they ended not started (just throwing some stuff together this morning not trying to get too deep)
 
Webberweather53 said:
You’re always one the first to be cancelling winter on here. Even your profile name speaks volumes to your average demeanor.
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You will not find a single post in this thread where I canceled winter or said it wouldn't snow. My argument has been no real cold for the next 10 days. If you're referring to my comment about the NAO and Feb I clearly said IF, we lose the NAO. I did not say we WILL lose it.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
You will not find a single post in this thread where I canceled winter or said it wouldn't snow. My argument has been no real cold for the next 10 days. If you're referring to my comment about the NAO and Feb I clearly said IF, we lose the NAO. I did not say we WILL lose it.
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You were consistently cancelling winter before it even started, like you do basically every single year & again as your profile name insinuates.

Next question.

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The meltdowns are hilarious. Why is anyone surprised? Its the south. History tells us it doesn't snow in December much. Especially the 1st couple days. Plenty of spots down at the bottom of the cliff. Come join me!
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https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
We never have a fall or winter anymore sadly. All we do is get brief windows of seasonal weather in fall and winter. During winter we just try to time a 7-10 day window to actually score a snow. I just stay at the bottom of the cliff. Makes it easier.

But don't worry, you'll get upper 40's to 50's for lows in December and upper 30's to 40's in January before we go back up in February.
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[/QUOTE]
https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm thinking about going ahead and cliff diving! I need to claim my spot now before it fills up down there in about 2 months from now.
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Webberweather53 said:
You were consistently cancelling winter before it even started, like you do basically every single year & again as your profile name insinuates.

Next question.


https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
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https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
[/QUOTE]
Oh thanks for digging that up. I'm glad you found time to do that. I guess you see no sarcasm in that huh? I mean like you said I have an image on here of being negative that I've intentionally created with my username and pic from the start to be funny. And if someone is the type that doesn't like reading that stuff there is an ignore button. But does that mean I can't have a legit opinion when the time comes? I mean I've seen you post images of bad patterns saying "we suck" and winter cancel posts from you too. Did I take it seriously? No
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
https://southernwx.com/community/th...-winter-whamby-thread.821/page-43#post-341325
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Oh thanks for digging that up. I'm glad you found time to do that. I guess you see no sarcasm in that huh? I mean like you said I have an image on here of being negative that I've intentionally created with my username and pic from the start to be funny. And if someone is the type that doesn't like reading that stuff there is an ignore button. But does that mean I can't have a legit opinion when the time comes? I mean I've seen you post images of bad patterns saying "we suck" and winter cancel posts from you too. Did I take it seriously? No
[/QUOTE]

No doubt theres a level of sarcasm but oth it does seem like you must certainly believe what you’re saying if you’ve been posting that over, over, and over again ad nauseam before and during every winter. Eventually your true colors and intentions emerge. It’s analogous to when someone tells a lie repeatedly, eventually you and others will start to actually believe it to be true.

Nope, never said or implied your opinion wasn’t legit, there’s just a time and place for incessant banter, whining, & complaining and we made this thread for that very purpose.

Context is important. The only thing you post here for the most part is incessant negativity and you conveniently decide to show up and post usually when things are going south. I provide my opinion both positive, negative, and objective with data and expert meteorological intuition to back it up. You see the glaring difference?

Also, I thought you weren’t gonna keep responding to me anymore? What happened to that?
 
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