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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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My personal life has been crap lately and this was the only thing that I was looking forward to, like if the winter weather didn't happen I was hoping it would at least get cold but fricking no.

It feels like everything I get excited about just goes away. I bet if something happened to me, CLT/NC/The SE would probably have a blockbuster storm not too long after.
 
SimeonNC said:
Imagine having a -NAO, - AO, a SSWE, and a TPV coming down and not being able to get a fricking ice storm.
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Actually, the NAO is pretty neutral. Technically, yes slightly negative but no solid -NAO. If it were a solid -NAO, it might have been a different story.

nao.sprd2.gif
 
SimeonNC said:
My personal life has been crap lately and this was the only thing that I was looking forward to, like if the winter weather didn't happen I was hoping it would at least get cold but fricking no.

It feels like everything I get excited about just goes away. I bet if something happened to me, CLT/NC/The SE would probably have a blockbuster storm not too long after.
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Simeon that last sentence scares me just a bit sir, even if I don't know you. You got anybody you can talk to?
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm sorry I'm just really upset rn, and yeah I do.
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Alright man, I'm glad to hear it. (that you got someone to talk to)

If it's girl trouble (and I suspect it is) then try try try try not to overanalyze. Without more info, that is all I have to offer.
 
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SimeonNC said:
My personal life has been crap lately and this was the only thing that I was looking forward to, like if the winter weather didn't happen I was hoping it would at least get cold but fricking no.

It feels like everything I get excited about just goes away. I bet if something happened to me, CLT/NC/The SE would probably have a blockbuster storm not too long after.
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Man, WE don't want anything to happen to you. Glad you have a resource to talk to. You can always hang with us on this board and enjoy the plight we all experience with crappy winter weather chances. "This too, shall pass"
 
The CAD likely outperforms but won’t be enough for anything outside of cold rain outside of MAYBE favored areas. Always does, seemingly.

Which is lovely for me because I think I’m starting to get sick. I’m doubtful it’s COVID, because it’s my sinuses acting out. Just woke up this morning and was congested with no warning.
 
If someone is under an ongoing Ice Storm Warning with heavy rates overhead, would this cause more runoff than accrual on surfaces? Or is this also highly dependent on how low the surface temp is?
 
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YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
If it's below 28 or so, you probably shouldn't. (as Sleet City man suggested earlier) You should just hunker down and hope your power don't go out.
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Thanks. I only have to face any kind of winter storm every 3-4 years or so. Of those I've only been through a couple minor freezing rain events, so I thought I'd ask.
 
NWMSGuy said:
If someone is under an ongoing Ice Storm Warning with heavy rates overhead, would this cause my runoff than accrual on surfaces? Or is this also highly dependent on how low the surface temp is?
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I'm not an expert, but I've noticed from years of observing this really depends on surface temp. If you've got heavy rates and 30 and above, you'll get some accrual, but a lot of it will really just run off. But the lower you go, it really depends on surface temp.

If it's heavy and you're below 27, then it's time to start getting worried.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I'm not an expert, but I've noticed from years of observing this really depends on surface temp. If you've got heavy rates and 30 and above, you'll get some accrual, but a lot of it will really just run off. But the lower you go, it really depends on surface temp.

If it's heavy and you're below 27, then it's time to start getting worried.
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Excellent! Thanks for the feedback. Was something that came to mind with heavier rates overnight and into the morning hours at my location even though we were holding steady at 30. Not a significant amount of accrual so your message makes sense.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Excellent! Thanks for the feedback. Was something that came to mind with heavier rates overnight and into the morning hours at my location even though we were holding steady at 30. Not a significant amount of accrual so your message makes sense.
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Yessir. If you’re at 30 you’re likely ok. Not that you can’t have problems there, but it’d have to be a long sustained event with lighter to moderate rates. If it’s raining cats and dogs, then you might have so much rates that temp at surface is rising slightly and less accrual.

Honestly the vast majority of frz rn events aren’t worse than snow. And they can be pretty. ( I bet tomorrow morning will look stunning at you’re locale) But it’s the really bad ones that you got to worry about and why you hear fear in some of us. I’d say 1 in 20. Those are the ones that humble you and make you talk in reverent tones at the potential that Mother Nature can wrought. For me, it was Dec 02. Others can relate or toss up other storms. You will likely see at least one in your lifetime, but likely not this one.
 
Will Rossman said:
Honest question here. How do I drive in freezing rain?
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Slowly or not at all

I still would rather not but I have learned a little the last couple years the key is slow and don't slam on the brakes if you hit ice. I guarantee you that wreck in Fort Worth today was people going too fast

Funny story but last winter when I chased to Wichita Falls at 1am in the middle of the night I hit ice on a rural road and well you learn quick lmao
 
Counting yesterday, it looks like rain here for 6 straight days, and rain for 8 out of 9 days. This winter sucks. I hope some folks will learn not to hype the supposedly great pattern coming up and realise the great patterns that used to produce snow here in the past just don't produce like they used to because our climate is not the same.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Yessir. If you’re at 30 you’re likely ok. Not that you can’t have problems there, but it’d have to be a long sustained event with lighter to moderate rates. If it’s raining cats and dogs, then you might have so much rates that temp at surface is rising slightly and less accrual.

Honestly the vast majority of frz rn events aren’t worse than snow. And they can be pretty. ( I bet tomorrow morning will look stunning at you’re locale) But it’s the really bad ones that you got to worry about and why you hear fear in some of us. I’d say 1 in 20. Those are the ones that humble you and make you talk in reverent tones at the potential that Mother Nature can wrought. For me, it was Dec 02. Others can relate or toss up other storms. You will likely see at least one in your lifetime, but likely not this one.
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Absolutely agree! It was ‘94 for me at 6 years old.
 
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