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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Ollie Williams said:
I'm really looking forward to opening up the 2020-2021 archive thread in the next month or two. Last year was somewhat experimental, so this year should be exciting! I started it early-mid October, but I suspect it may be earlier with the 00z GEFS extending 30 days.
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I wonder what our "fantasy" snowfall amounts would be if we tracked them all winter? modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie
 
I like what @Rain Cold and @GaWx said in their posts, hard to disagree with either standpoint. Before the winter of 19-20 I thought this winter would be much better in terms of sustained cooler weather, no reason other than a hunch. I think we will see an overall DJF somewhere in the range of 1-2F above the 1980-2010 averages, which is going to feel like a decent winter.
 
Good news vs recent winters for cold winter lovers per Maxar: KATL is forecasted to have a colder winter than the previous 5.

- 2.4 colder than 19-20
- 1.7 colder than 18-19
- 0.5 colder than 17-18
- 4.6 colder than 16-17
- 1.8 colder than 15-16

They're forecasting near 47.7 at KATL with ~47.0 for Dec, ~45.8 for Jan, and ~50.2 for Feb. So, although the SER is fully expected to flex its muscles at times thanks to the very warm Indonesian waters (mainly in Dec and Feb (especially Feb)) and although we have GW to contend with, hopefully the length and frequency of these periods will be lower than in most of the recent winters. This chance would be helped if any La Nina were to be weak since La Nina has some correlation with a SER (El Nino is the opposite although the very warm Indonesian waters overruled the weak El Ninos of the last 2 winters). Fingers need to be crossed since the warm Indonesian waters are still there. Because of this, I feel the risk to be warmer is higher than the risk to be colder than the forecast.

To put this in perspective, the projected 47.7 for winter would be ~32 F colder than the current summer. I can't wait for the fresher and drier air of winter as well as mid to late autumn! I won't miss the sweating, bugs, and high power bills!
 
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GaWx said:
Good news vs recent winters for cold winter lovers per Maxar: KATL is forecasted to have a colder winter than the previous 5.

- 2.4 colder than 19-20
- 1.7 colder than 18-19
- 0.5 colder than 17-18
- 4.6 colder than 16-17
- 1.8 colder than 15-16

They're forecasting near 47.7 at KATL with ~47.0 for Dec, ~45.8 for Jan, and ~50.2 for Feb. So, although the SER is fully expected to flex its muscles at times thanks to the very warm Indonesian waters (mainly in Dec and Feb (especially Feb)) and although we have GW to contend with, hopefully the length and frequency of these periods will be lower than in most of the recent winters. This chance would be helped if any La Nina were to be weak since La Nina has some correlation with a SER (El Nino is the opposite although the very warm Indonesian waters overruled the weak El Ninos of the last 2 winters). Fingers need to be crossed since the warm Indonesian waters are still there. Because of this, I feel the risk to be warmer is higher than the risk to be colder than the forecast.

To put this in perspective, the projected 47.7 for winter would be ~32 F colder than the current summer. I can't wait for the fresher and drier air of winter! I won't miss the sweating, bugs, and high power bills!
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Not a bad forecast. If we get catch a couple breaks I could see Dec/Jan being close to normal
 
Storm5 said:
www.foxnews.com

Winter looks 'cold and snowy' with some 'crazy in-between,' Farmers' Almanac claims

Winter is coming, apparently with a vengeance.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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When even the Farmers Almanacs look like @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy wrote them and they say “chilly, showery” and “not so cold, not too wet” for the SE US, you know this is not looking to be a memorable (in a good way) SE winter. Regardless, I’m always looking forward to a much colder and more enjoyable season than summer as that is still guaranteed even in this day and age. Even the likely upcoming taste of autumn with potential cold records, especially in places like AL and TN, is exciting.

Looking forward to all of the amateur forecasts that have “battleground” in and near the SE lmao.
 
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GaWx said:
When even the Farmers Almanacs look like @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy wrote them and they say “chilly, showery” and “not so cold, not too wet” for the SE US, you know this is not looking to be a memorable (in a good way) SE winter. Regardless, I’m always looking forward to a much colder and more enjoyable season than summer as that is still guaranteed even in this day and age. Even the likely upcoming taste of autumn with potential cold records, especially in places like AL and TN, is exciting.

Looking forward to all of the amateur forecasts that have “battleground” in and near the SE lmao.
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Larry, wouldn't we need to focus on epo and ao for winter, which are hard to predict this far out? I believe they will be crucial to have any chance at some cold here
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, wouldn't we need to focus on epo and ao for winter, which are hard to predict this far out? I believe they will be crucial to have any chance at some cold here
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No, I focus on the Indonesian warmth, GW, the AN models, and persistence of AN over anything else. AN is clearly the way to go in the SE. You're not in the SE/further west and away from the SER. So, maybe you won't be as AN. I don't know.

I'm still looking for the "battleground" forecasts for the SE because they always seem to appear whatever battleground means..
 
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