Fountainguy97
Member
for sure. La Niña≠ 100% scorch. the 17-18 season is a great example of this. You can still see 4-6week periods of good cold during La Niña. Especially weak ones.
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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
for sure. La Niña≠ 100% scorch. the 17-18 season is a great example of this. You can still see 4-6week periods of good cold during La Niña. Especially weak ones.
LickWx
Member
Yeah it brought that horrifying once in a lifetime cold snap for neastern NC . Don’t remind me . I mean what the hell was that now you have me in a horrendous mood . Think first half was coldest January start ever Or close to it here .
The second most snow I've ever got in 10 years at this house happened with that clipper that pivoted in mid January. Something like 4.7 inches. Cold snap was great too, down to 14F here
smast16
Member
I dunno man, it sure was un-godly cold, but I totally weenied out and drove around to all the local ponds and walked on them. Why? Cuz I could!
LickWx
Member
Meh I tried those ponds needed another week .
Been a foggy August so far. Season changing quickly can tell with the bugs chirping in the evenings and mornings
smast16
Member
Fountainguy97
Member
that week was some of most severe winter weather I’ve ever been in. Good snow but the story was the cold after the storm.
Neuse River froze for the first time in
years.
Ponds in Greenville were thick enough to walk and drive 4wheelers on.
We got YELLED at right after this by some guy?
Albemarle sound was actually completely frozen off from the ocean for several days.
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That cold snap was amazing. I think I went 8, 4, 8, didn't get above freezing for days
One thing about Nina's you can get much more impressive cold than Ninos.
Good to see you guys catching on to me saying I'll take my chances with a weak nina
Good to see you guys catching on to me saying I'll take my chances with a weak nina
Fountainguy97
Member
I remember studying up on the long range patterns for the ‘17-18 winter. A lot of my mind wanted to write it off since it was Niña but a lot of our analogs we found had a cold 3-5week period. Turns out that was right.
I’d take a 2-3 week period in a deep freezer over the extra rain an El Niño offers any day haha
Seems like weak ninas leave the door open for some good cold shots. Hopefully we see that materialize this winter but we HAVE to have the MJO cooperate with a weaker enso state. MJO will decide our fate.
Looking at MJO from the ‘17-18 you can see we passed through 8-2 to open January ‘18. Likely a huge factor to our cold January.
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Round Oak Weather
Member
I remember 17-18 best duck season in years. You’d go to the swamps and crack the ice as u walked waded through the water. Seasons have been horrible since then.
From Larry Cosgrove on 8/8/20, something refreshing if you're tired of seeing cold after cold winter outlooks over the years that rarely verify. I was delightfully surprised not because this is what I want to verify but because I'm sick of seeing baseless cold mainly amateur forecasts and also because SE warmth has a good chance to verify well imo due to a combo of very warm Indonesian waters and continued GW though Mack's abode may very well be cold while the SE is mainly mild:
"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
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I think most in here know that. It's just hard for some to accept. We have way too much against us to be cold. I do think without el Nino influence we may can get a stronger cold shot or two over the last 2 winters, and maybe time a storm or two. Early to mid January being the best time. But colder than average? Not a chance imo.
NoSnowATL
Member
DJF period mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes." So nothing different since 2014.
El Nino influence actually favors colder winters vs non-El Nino on average. However, the very warm Indonesian waters have trumped Enso in recent years and look to continue to favor a dominant SER/warmer MJO phases/SE warmth regardless of ENSO. Add GW to the mix and warmth has to be favored for the SE:
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I'll be very honest with you. I don't think there is any signal that really signals anything reliable when it comes to winter, especially in the SE. Maybe 10 years ago, you could have made a case for something, but not anymore. The climate here is heavily tilted towards warmer and less snow. As far as I'm concerned, you can throw out soil moisture, solar, ENSOs, QBOs, PDOs, AMOS, and whatever other Os you have in the arsenal. It is just going to be warm, and that is all there is to it. Hopefully, we can line up a window or two of cold and precip. But that's a dice roll.
cd2play
Member
So basically we just have to wait until the warm Indonesian waters to run its cycle? That might take decades.
avlsnow
Member
As much as I would love to have a full 3 months of winter, I know that's not realistic here let alone Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, etc. If I can squeeze out a few cold snaps and one snowstorm (at least 6 inches) I will be happy with the AN winter.