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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Rain Cold said:
I'll be very honest with you. I don't think there is any signal that really signals anything reliable when it comes to winter, especially in the SE. Maybe 10 years ago, you could have made a case for something, but not anymore. The climate here is heavily tilted towards warmer and less snow. As far as I'm concerned, you can throw out soil moisture, solar, ENSOs, QBOs, PDOs, AMOS, and whatever other Os you have in the arsenal. It is just going to be warm, and that is all there is to it. Hopefully, we can line up a window or two of cold and precip. But that's a dice roll.
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I don't really worry about where DJF is in relation to normal any more. I just enjoy the winter typically still being 30+ F colder and much less humid with no bugs vs the summer. It is a much more enjoyable season for me vs summer. No comparison even if it is a solidly warm winter. In addition, I love autumn once cooler and especially drier air increases in dominance.

In summary, I enjoy late fall and winter immensely more than summer regardless of how warm vs normal they may be. I enjoy being able to go outside without sweating plus all of the ups and downs from day to day along with no bugs, especially no mosquitos! The way lower power bills are just icing on the cake.
 
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Easy money this year is warmth. Not so easy money is figuring out if/when it will get cold. Think its another EPO dominated winter but we may see a couple of periods of scandy ridging and a potential to hedge the western ridge close enough to the US so that we do in fact get cold. Likely time periods are after Christmas through mid January and late Feb into March.
 
GaWx said:
From Larry Cosgrove on 8/8/20, something refreshing if you're tired of seeing cold after cold winter outlooks over the years that rarely verify. I was delightfully surprised not because this is what I want to verify but because I'm sick of seeing baseless cold mainly amateur forecasts and also because SE warmth has a good chance to verify well imo due to a combo of very warm Indonesian waters and continued GW though Mack's abode may very well be cold while the SE is mainly mild:

"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
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Manager now!
 
SD said:
Easy money this year is warmth. Not so easy money is figuring out if/when it will get cold. Think its another EPO dominated winter but we may see a couple of periods of scandy ridging and a potential to hedge the western ridge close enough to the US so that we do in fact get cold. Likely time periods are after Christmas through mid January and late Feb into March.
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I'm thinking the same, with the exception of the time frames. I'd go early to mid-December and then mid to late-February for possible cold snaps.
 
Chazwin said:
I think this is the first time in 14 or 15 years he’s calling above normal on the East coast
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I hope he holds into a warm forecast for a change and joins LC’s warmth. But be wary of JB because this is only his preliminary and he unfortunately likes to replace noncold forecasts with cold as we get closer because he can’t resist. Keep in mind that he had cooled his initial forecast greatly last winter, which lead to a huge too cold bust like usual.
 
Sheets of sleets farmer almanac says I take tired of big snow I want ice to take down a forest
 
Why the hell would north eastern NC been in that zone vs western NC lmao
 
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