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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
Alaska is cold! Though axis and ridge axis is too far east! We fail!
Wouldn’t shock me if we switch to this, seems like we do It just in time for our last hurricane, lol, still tho that ridging around scandi is definitely doing its part with the SPV, still tho it wouldn’t shock me if that trough in SE Canada becomes more of a eastern trough, trending to that around day 11-12
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It hasn't matter what the pattern is like the past 10 years. We've been blanked in supposedly great patterns that produced in the past, and we've gotten snow in sucky patterns every once in awhile. I don't think we know what we need to get snow around here anymore. It just seems to do what it's gonna do.
Actually we’ve had a unfavorable pattern the last 2 years and when we do get a trough it’s way to strong, and then there’s the southeast ridge, and almost every winter storm happens in a favorable pattern, whether it last long or last for a few days
+PNA sliding too far east.. flirting with disaster here. I must respectfully toss
tennessee storm
Member
agree, also if it verifies, the trough is way to far east...
Do we want a -AO? Really? The past two years the only time we received any threat was with a +AO and No blocking.
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Yep, GSP had a very bad one then too, I think?
My prediction for winter will be: PAIN
And D, J, F, +3 to +5 temps for Met winter, for most of the SE
BHS1975
Member
ready for a repeat ? 
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks cooler then last year?
At this point, it has become a no-brainer that it's going to be a warm and miserable winter in the east. Now, when/if all of these warm forecasts bust, this will be the last year I give any weight to seasonal forecasting at all.
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It would be funny as heck if the warm forecast that JB put out for this winter busts on the cold side after the way he’s been adamant about East coast cold for the last few years. Of course it would absolutely fit 2020 if there to be a board wide historic Southern Winter Storm at some point in mid to late December.
cd2play
Member
It would be funny as heck if the warm forecast that JB put out for this winter busts on the cold side after the way he’s been adamant about East coast cold for the last few years. Of course it would absolutely fit 2020 if there to be a board wide historic Southern Winter Storm at some point in mid to late December.
[/QUO TE]
Give me a boardwide 4-6 inch event during last 10 days of Dec and I will call it a winter.
I honesty don’t know if we should route for warm or cold over the next month? I would route for cold because any cold fall air is welcome. I would also route for warm so we see a shift in the monotonous regime of cold late fall, only for winter to be warm. Interesting Tweet by Webber and Fro.
I'm all for take the blocking and potential cold when you can get it. I mean if nothing else it shows that we can actually get blocking in the nao region and maybe we see it repeat again toward early December
There’s no correlation between a negative NAO in Oct and one for DJF averaged out...i.e., it doesn’t make one more likely nor does it make one less likely vs when not having a -NAO Oct. The stats since 1950 tell me this. And the stats just since 2000 tell me this. But if it will make it cooler in Oct, that’s good enough for me.
but what about the Siberian Khatru Snowfall Index?