Fountainguy97
Member
^great post, I'm rolling with that....
Agreed
^great post, I'm rolling with that....
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.
View attachment 48994
All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.
Temps:
View attachment 48993View attachment 48992View attachment 48998
And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.
View attachment 48995View attachment 48996
View attachment 48991
The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
That H5 pattern Looks sorta similar to what we’re about to deal with if the LR models are right, some nice blocking....I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.
View attachment 48994
All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.
Temps:
View attachment 48993View attachment 48992View attachment 48998
And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.
View attachment 48995View attachment 48996
View attachment 48991
The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
SD is all aboard at least 1 extreme pac ridging period with a major cold dump into the US. I may have said this before but I personally believe last winter wouldn't have been as crappy if we didn't have the mega vortex chopping off any attempt at HLB. I also know that house money is on warmth this winter but there are a couple of ways we could sneak around the warmth and actually get into a much more average winter temp wise.That H5 pattern Looks sorta similar to what we’re about to deal with if the LR models are right, some nice blocking....
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.
All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.
Temps:
And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.
The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
For BHM I looked at the 2005/2006(closest time wise of this active of a tropical season) and nothing winter weather wise was mentioned of any consequence for the end of 2005 beginning 2006...Is there any coorelation to an active hurricane season and winter weather in the east/southeast?
NopeIs there any coorelation to an active hurricane season and winter weather in the east/southeast?
Nope
So low ACE is what we want if I’m reading that right.Looks like it has more to do with ACE Index and Typhoons.
https://blog.weatherops.com/does-the-active-hurricane-season-mean-a-warm-winter-is-ahead
Yeah, we're overdue a COLD Dec.. if not a snowy one.. Been a while really. Can't keep flipping a coin and it end up heads.If I was to release a winter forecast out right now (take with a extremely small grain of sand) this is what I would go with
December View attachment 49027
January View attachment 49028
February View attachment 49029
Average it out for DJF and much of the SE would still end up quite AN, but not as bad as the last few winters
Unless you're like me with guessing coin flips. A 50/50 and guaranteed I'll guess wrong 85% of the time! ?Yeah, we're overdue a COLD Dec.. if not a snowy one.. Been a while really. Can't keep flipping a coin and it end up heads.
Yeah, we're overdue a COLD Dec.. if not a snowy one.. Been a while really. Can't keep flipping a coin and it end up heads.
Be interesting to see how that plays out...Yeah and plus ninas (especially East based) can sometimes be better in December VS El Niño’s
December 2010 was a moderate-strong La Niña and it was awesome. Well below normal temperatures with several events here in NC.
It is remarkable how long we have gone without a significant Arctic outbreak in December. This year seems to be changing up the late September pattern, maybe it will lead to a cooler December as well?
This cool weather has me thinking snow.