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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Does anybody have Webber's NC "past winter storms" URL? I had it linked at my work, but I'm teleworking now.
 
I guess I was wrong about Dr. Roundy. Kinda suprised he said that. Considering he knows alot about mjo stuff
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, I know your adamant about it being a warm winter, but I read something from Dr. Roundy that the IOD has switched phases and expects a much different outcome coming up.
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He probably wrong about that also. Mjo plays big factor like always. It dont get enough acceptance ?
 
Mr. Golf said:
He probably wrong about that also. Mjo plays big factor like always. It dont get enough acceptance
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Honestly guys, the MJO is still a mystery. Not enough is known about its phases. I never look at MJO forecast past two weeks. Let alone this experiment model? We can’t even get hr240 and beyond accurate and this guy formed a model for two months out?

WWP are just for click bait and for viewers to tune into the 6pm news. Everyone has been burnt. When will Mets and hobbyists learn?

We have to go by the most proven factual data that is given and within the 240hr time frame is when we should analyze predictions.

There I said it. It had to be said.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
We're starting to get closer to the beginning of "model winter." The EPS weeklies are beginning to approach that time, and I plotted all the airports with at least one member with snowfall. NC went up 2 from the previous run. SC and GA still have 0. This is also the first run where the Weatherbell algorithm puts non-zero totals in NC.output_wSijwU.gifecmwf-weeklies-avg-conus-snow_46day-3411200.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-se-snow_46day-3411200.png
 
It doesn't really matter anymore what kind of pattern we have. El Nino, La Nina, AO, NAO, on and on. We have had patterns that are supposed to produce good snow here end up producing zilch, and we've had good snow when the pattern was supposedly bad for it. I think what we used to count on for producing around here just doesn't work like it used to. We can't rely on it one way or another in winter.
 
This is the first time I’ve seen the LR new GEFS be available on Weatherbell. The mean is making its way into the mountains through October! I believe it gets implemented next Wednesday.
9DE4414F-D68A-4EA2-9319-52888DC87297.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
This is the first time I’ve seen the LR new GEFS be available on Weatherbell. The mean is making its way into the mountains through October! I believe it gets implemented next Wednesday.
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The mean is just being mean by trying to fool us by sneaking in a “possible” taste of the good stuff. Not again King!! As former President George W. Bush said, “"There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, 'Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me... You can't get fooled again!'"
 
tramadoc said:
The mean is just being mean by trying to fool us by sneaking in a “possible” taste of the good stuff. Not again King!! As former President George W. Bush said, “"There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, 'Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me... You can't get fooled again!'"
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Don't worry, I won't get fooled, especially by a mean 860hrs out lol. I'm just posting here because we haven't met our criteria for the archive thread. Although watch out in case the regular (384hr) GEFS gives central NC some snow.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Don't worry, I won't get fooled, especially by a mean 860hrs out lol. I'm just posting here because we haven't met our criteria for the archive thread. Although watch out in case the regular (384hr) GEFS gives central NC some snow.
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What’s the criteria?
 
tramadoc said:
What’s the criteria?
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1. if an ensemble model <384hrs (Most likely the GEFS) to have at least one member with snow outside of the mountains or the foothills eastward.
2. We get an operational run to show something in the SE, including the mountains.
 
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Psalm 148:8 said:
Ok... so crazy wildfires, a gazillion tropical systems... and it’s mid September and finally feeling like fall!!! Have we hit the reset button to bring us some snow???? Let’s hope so!!!
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Give us another White Christmas this year Mother Nature and I can forgive all of the grievances that is the year 2020. lol
 
I always enjoy using the tidbits SST analysis as an analog set. Here is the Analysis. It is a month long analysis of the current SST. Not my analogs, These are the years that are as close to this years SST's as possible. No other variables are taken into account.

Screenshot (1).png

All of these years are pretty strong analogs for the current SST pattern across the globe with an east based La Nina.
17-18 proved we can rock and roll in an East based La Nina and a lot of these analogs would make a lot of us happy.

Temps:

Jan.pngDJF.pngjAN 500MB.png


And I pulled out the snowfall maps for these years as well. Snowfall is much harder to predict due to the lack of events across a lot of our areas. Looks like feast or famine.

first.pngSecond.png

70-71.png


The common theme in all of my light research into this winter and East Based La Nina's in general seems to point toward January being the best shot for cold and snow. It seems that East based Nina's are more kind to us as a whole.
 
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