NoSnowATL
Member
Yea I enjoyed my cold rain while 10-15 miles north and west of me got 6-12in. Very fun!
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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
When did you move to southern Wake County?
NoSnowATL
Member
Ha...That’s why I moved this year.
I kept a GPS app running on my phone a couple weeks back on the way back from Augusta, I never realized the elevation east of the city dropped off so quickly. A lot of that area is between 6-700', a pretty significant drop from the northwest side of town. That has to play at least a fraction of the reason why that area misses out so often.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Everyone talking about how much they hated the December 9th 2017 storm but it was the largest snowstorm I had seen in my lifetime.
NoSnowATL
Member
It was great for you guys for sure. Looked awesome from the pictures I saw while I was drinking in my closet crying.
Rosie
Member
Only thing I hated was power going out!
NoSnowATL
Member
How much did you get?
Rosie
Member
About 12”.
We already know we're gonna torch. But here's a bold prediction for ya! With the impossibility to get a - NAO in winter anymore, the persistent Indonesian warmth to wreck the Pacific and La Nina which often are dominated by a SER, we have a recipe to experience the warmest winter on record. But by some miracle in mid January we manage a cold shot and get a traditional Texas to Carolina snowstorm (except areas from se of Atlanta to CAE, that place needs divine intervention to see snow again) like we haven't seen since the good ole days.
All it takes is one storm in a warm winter and that one was marginal at best. 33 with 850s barely at freezing and I scored a foot which trails only 93 in my life. 87 was pretty close though.
That put the biggest damper on the storm. I think my house was 37 when the power came back on and I had a roaring fire going for days.
Rosie
Member
No heat, gas logs would not light. At least the stove worked.
That's rough. I could look in every direction of my house and see lights on for two days. I finally called the power company and told them it was only a fuse and not the lines and they got out quick.
NoSnowATL
Member
Fuse? Your house still has a fuse box?
Rosie
Member
Cats helped me stay warm, used truck for heat and to charge phone and iPad. Some around here were out for 4 plus days.
Wulfer
Member
So, the long range forecasts are going warmer from the start this time? I think we've all learned Hurricanes and Typhoons change these forecasts each season. We still have a long time to go in the Hurricane season!
The one on the transformer. Georgia Power.
lexxnchloe
Member
If the long range forecasts say warm, it will be bitter cold, lol
I think major snowstorms south of the mountains of NC and the state line in the Carolinas are now below 10%. However, ICE storms are on the increase. There were quite a few major ice storms modeled last year in those areas but never came in fruition. Of corse this is only speculation. I have no data to back it up.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I’ve talked a lot in recent years about the correlation of very warm Indonesian/west Pacific waters to a stronger SE ridge. I just had another talk with my Maxar contact about the upcoming winter based on it being La Niña combined with very warm west Pacific waters. He said these things:
“West Pacific sea surface temperatures, which are nearby Indonesia, were +2.31 standard deviations warmer than normal in August. This was the second warmest the waters have been in August back to 1950. The only other warmer August was in 1998; although, 2017 and 2016 are close behind at +2 standard deviations above normal for the month.”
“It is also worth noting that the region is where convective activity is normally enhanced during La Nina winters. With the waters being as warm as they are, we are more likely to see further enhancement of the convective forcing beyond that of a typical La Nina. The response results in the further enhancement of the warmer Southeast ridge in winter.”
He then gave me the DJF temperature map for the average of the 3 La Ninas of 1998-9, 2016-7, and 2017-8 and this was the result, an average of +3 to +5 in the SE US (closely matches Bastardi):
At KATL specifically, Dec averaged 48.5 (+3), Jan averaged 46.8 (+3), and Feb averaged 54.4 (+7). The 1981-2010 30 year average for DJF was 45.5. So, DJF of these 3 winters averaged 49.9, or +4.4 vs 1981-2010 averages. But remember that even the 49.9 would still be 30.1 colder than the 2020 summer instead of the 1981-2010 DJF average of 34.5 colder than the 2020 summer. So, it will still be a much more enjoyable season, regardless, for those who don’t prefer summer wx.
“West Pacific sea surface temperatures, which are nearby Indonesia, were +2.31 standard deviations warmer than normal in August. This was the second warmest the waters have been in August back to 1950. The only other warmer August was in 1998; although, 2017 and 2016 are close behind at +2 standard deviations above normal for the month.”
“It is also worth noting that the region is where convective activity is normally enhanced during La Nina winters. With the waters being as warm as they are, we are more likely to see further enhancement of the convective forcing beyond that of a typical La Nina. The response results in the further enhancement of the warmer Southeast ridge in winter.”
He then gave me the DJF temperature map for the average of the 3 La Ninas of 1998-9, 2016-7, and 2017-8 and this was the result, an average of +3 to +5 in the SE US (closely matches Bastardi):
At KATL specifically, Dec averaged 48.5 (+3), Jan averaged 46.8 (+3), and Feb averaged 54.4 (+7). The 1981-2010 30 year average for DJF was 45.5. So, DJF of these 3 winters averaged 49.9, or +4.4 vs 1981-2010 averages. But remember that even the 49.9 would still be 30.1 colder than the 2020 summer instead of the 1981-2010 DJF average of 34.5 colder than the 2020 summer. So, it will still be a much more enjoyable season, regardless, for those who don’t prefer summer wx.
Did the southeast experience a big event in 98-99 followed by minor events?
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NoSnowATL
Member
Bad years for Ga. 98-99 was poop.
Not that I recall. But there was one month of these 3 winters that was solidly colder than normal: Jan of 2018, which included a top 10 of the coldest weeks on record (going back to the late 1800s) for many. The first week of that January was extremely cold and also included a very rare coastal SE major winter storm.
So, whereas nothing like that is likely or is being predicted, a very cold week (even if not historic cold) at some point even during an overall mild winter wouldn’t be shocking.
cd2play
Member
I wonder how much longer those IO waters stay so warm
cd2play
Member
Much of TN had a late Dec ice storm. That was about it
NoSnowATL
Member
Hopefully not too much longer. Can’t stay warm forever.
Warmer means more water to work with. Could easily get dumped on with wet snow during the transition phases pre and post winter with 1-2 feet esp if you have some elevation to work with (800ft and up).
I would run with 1 Storm first week of December that is sig (6-12”) and rain rest of winter and be happy. But I do want some spring snow in March first week too.
tennessee storm
Member
Then we all know what happened after the little ice storm January 99 in Tennessee couple weeks later ...
Mr. Golf
Member
Larry, I know your adamant about it being a warm winter, but I read something from Dr. Roundy that the IOD has switched phases and expects a much different outcome coming up.
NoSnowATL
Member
Isn’t that the same guy that create a model that had last year being cold? It wasn’t right.
Mr. Golf
Member
NoSnowATL
Member
Well he was wrong last year on his prediction.
Mr. Golf
Member
Alot of people were actually
NoSnowATL
Member
Correct
Brent
Member
Honestly I'm done with predictions they are always wrong lol
Expect warmth is my mantra
Expect warmth is my mantra
Yes, I posted it, I’ll see if I can find it.
accu35
Member
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I agree with Brent, I'm tired of these predictions every year it's getting old. Sure it's good to know what's coming our way but watching and reading winter forecast is not encouraging anymore to me if we gonna see the opposite. I've seen warm winter forecast and scored the best snows of the season.