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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
i like where we are headed. away from the 70s and tornadoes straight into winter temps. Finally.
The Euro control looks better for wave #2, though that doesn't have ensemble support.
it's not that 12z's run was bad. It's just worse. Fairly impressive and won't take too much to change.
00z
00z
Obviously we all know we are going to see OP runs and ENS runs all over the place for next few days. What I do like is that there is overall consistency showing up with the overall pattern. It lines up very well with the MJO forecasts as well.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Baby steps. Any specific threat is still 2 weeks out.
I love the end of the Ensembles.
EPS
GEPS
GEFS
EPS
GEPS
GEFS
Jon
Member
it's not that 12z's run was bad. It's just worse. Fairly impressive and won't take too much to change.
View attachment 30559
00z
Do you have the individual members? I’m assuming the member with the big snow 27” for RDU went poof. Expected at this time frame.
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NoSnowATL
Member
So is it just getting pushed back? Instead of around the 21st in more like 26th-28th? Thanks
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No, they aren't getting pushed back, all 3 are still cold during that period, the end of the run is just looking awesome.
NoSnowATL
Member
Yikes no love for the DS on this run, plenty of time to change but I think my call map will verify for the upper south.
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Whew the 288hr time frame of the individual EPS members will get the blood pumping.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Just for clarification. Are you saying that you have issued a call map for a potential storm over a week away or am I missing something?
NoSnowATL
Member
Kinda. I made a map of the areas I think that will see snow for a time period. Not a certain storm per say but for the period between 21-27th. I wouldn’t really call it a real call map I guess.
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In the words of the buzzard on Horton Hears a Who, Holy Moly at 360hrs on the EPS members. That is a freaking monster of a 50/50 on like 80% of the members with most with a strong PNA to boot.
Could plausibly make up for the winter in a two week period if that look materializes.
Could plausibly make up for the winter in a two week period if that look materializes.
You have to think whatever is going on in the d7-11 period may be an appetizer for the main fun arriving in the d14-20 range. As this pattern amplifies and matures we could go really cold with the main action forced well south.
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Dr. Roundy's MJO model says this pattern isn't going anywhere for a month. With an active subtropical jet, things are looking interesting.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
