GeorgiaGirl
Member
Euro is interesting so far. The wave of interest looks further south and is becoming a ULL.
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
Euro honestly is looking a bit off for sure but obviously it’s ensembles we really want to see
My only problem with the Euro is that the high pressure moved in too quickly, otherwise not a bad look at H5. Just need more blocking over BC and the trough off the EC to strengthen.
Trough looks too far east at this time, but in my experience usually corrects NWMy only problem with the Euro is that the high pressure moved in too quickly, otherwise not a bad look at H5
wow
Member
Euro similar to GFS with the setup at 240. HP over the SE with low developing over the NW GOM, precip building over TX.
Quite the zonal look at D10 on the Euro. HP is ok, but doesn't look all that cold to me. Looking at 850 anoms, there's a transient cold shot days 8 and 9 and then AN looks take over. Meh. Will probably change though.
wow
Member
Looks fine to me at this time... low heights off the coast will force the storm south with HP building as the PJ wave rolls thru.
That Western ridge will build after the kicker wave moves east.
That Western ridge will build after the kicker wave moves east.
The Day 10 Euro has been changing for the last 3 runs. Best to look at Ensembles until you 5 days out. Just my opinion.
wow
Member
Look at height anomaly chart. Temps not super cold but it's cold enough.. we'll see!
No way to sugarcoat that. Its hideous. And doesn't even look to be heading decent.
GFS and Euro both show too many waves hitting Canada, breaking down the nice western ridge and making it too progressive. Hopefully the ensembles will be more correct.
I'd like to see the Euro pump that EPO and keep the PNA positive, which would allow the PV to sink a little closer. Don't need squash city, but we do need something to bring the cold core closer. Coupled with the active southern stream, it would just be a matter of time, which I think is going to be the case anyway.
D
Deleted member 418
Guest
But as he said it’ll change on the next run.... no reason to get so hung up on one run
ATLwxfan
Member
Maybe we aren’t giving the GFS enough credit for tapping the breaks on the cold. I mean clearly this degree of AN temps are nearly over.
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From the early looks, the EPS will be trash. smh
12z
00z
12z
00z
wow
Member
Yeah looks warm after the wave.. would be marginal temps verbatim. At that time the 0 line cuts down to NC, freezing sfc temps to FL. But in the end this is all so far out, I'm just pleased the pattern continues to show up.
wow
Member
Looks like it is consistent with the setup. Precip maps will all over at this range.
i like where we are headed. away from the 70s and tornadoes straight into winter temps. Finally.
The Euro control looks better for wave #2, though that doesn't have ensemble support.
it's not that 12z's run was bad. It's just worse. Fairly impressive and won't take too much to change.
00z
00z
Obviously we all know we are going to see OP runs and ENS runs all over the place for next few days. What I do like is that there is overall consistency showing up with the overall pattern. It lines up very well with the MJO forecasts as well.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Baby steps. Any specific threat is still 2 weeks out.
I love the end of the Ensembles.
EPS
GEPS
GEFS
EPS
GEPS
GEFS
Jon
Member
it's not that 12z's run was bad. It's just worse. Fairly impressive and won't take too much to change.
View attachment 30559
00z
Do you have the individual members? I’m assuming the member with the big snow 27” for RDU went poof. Expected at this time frame.
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NoSnowATL
Member
So is it just getting pushed back? Instead of around the 21st in more like 26th-28th? Thanks
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No, they aren't getting pushed back, all 3 are still cold during that period, the end of the run is just looking awesome.
NoSnowATL
Member
Yikes no love for the DS on this run, plenty of time to change but I think my call map will verify for the upper south.
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Whew the 288hr time frame of the individual EPS members will get the blood pumping.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Just for clarification. Are you saying that you have issued a call map for a potential storm over a week away or am I missing something?
NoSnowATL
Member
Kinda. I made a map of the areas I think that will see snow for a time period. Not a certain storm per say but for the period between 21-27th. I wouldn’t really call it a real call map I guess.
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In the words of the buzzard on Horton Hears a Who, Holy Moly at 360hrs on the EPS members. That is a freaking monster of a 50/50 on like 80% of the members with most with a strong PNA to boot.
Could plausibly make up for the winter in a two week period if that look materializes.
Could plausibly make up for the winter in a two week period if that look materializes.
You have to think whatever is going on in the d7-11 period may be an appetizer for the main fun arriving in the d14-20 range. As this pattern amplifies and matures we could go really cold with the main action forced well south.
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Dr. Roundy's MJO model says this pattern isn't going anywhere for a month. With an active subtropical jet, things are looking interesting.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
