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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Meteorologist1999 said:
Wow. Has the probability of >1 gone up for Columbia SC since 12z?
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Yes, here is 12z
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What a great looking pattern setting up by day 9 on all of the ensembles. It looks to have some staying power because all ensemble suites still look wonderful on day 15 and 16. Let’s get through this next week and see if we can’t get some winter storms for the SE!
 
It's not surprising to see a winter storm showing up on the EPS & GEFS in NC just after January 20th given this RMM MJO forecast, certainly may not materialize but there are legitimate reasons it's consistently there. I'm curious how this forecast evolves the next few days, I think we'll see the MJO end up somewhere in between the EPS & GEFS given their respective biases w/ the MJO in the West Pac.

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Here’s Atlanta’s composite versus Raleigh. Raleigh’s are the most recent bigger events since 96 and Atlanta’s is its top 10 snowfalls.

Top is Raleigh

Can see Atlanta has the NAO signature and deeper further south low practically over upstate NY.

Caveat this by saying it obviously can snow in other patterns.

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KyloG said:
Here’s Atlanta’s composite versus Raleigh. Raleigh’s are the most recent bigger events since 96 and Atlanta’s is its top 10 snowfalls.

Top is Raleigh

Can see Atlanta has the NAO signature and deeper further south low practically over upstate NY.

Caveat this by saying it obviously can snow in other patterns.

View attachment 30481View attachment 30482
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How many events are in raleigh’s composite?


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For the record and very much fwiw, the 6Z GFS has a moderate (and very rare) ZR in SE GA and far S SC 1/22-3 (see images below). This then leads into a major NE snowstorm with the next shortwave (see 3rd and 4th images). Interestingly, this combo of events is sort of similar to what happened in late January of 1922, when there was an historic deep SE ZR followed by a big snow in NC and then the NE US that is known as the tragic Knickerbocker Storm. As best as I can tell, that series of events, too, was due to two different back to back shortwaves. That winter was also mainly mild in the SE outside of late January.

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Man, the Canadian was nice last night in the 9-10 day period and GFS appeared to be close as well. Ensembles keep looking good. I’m thinking we have a nice chance at scoring towards the end of the month and hope we can get a good day of model runs.
 
Those strong H’s the GFS keeps advertising past hr150 keep disappearing. No where near as cold on the 12z gfs during this time period as previous runs. They really need to get this model tweaked and fixed. Run to run changes are to be expected but this is just terrible. Hopefully the ensembles are okay. Having the EPS on board is great though.
 
Gfs looks nice at 204, let's see if the wave in the SW can survive or if it is shredded

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Chattownsnow said:
Those strong H’s the GFS keeps advertising past hr150 keep disappearing. No where near as cold on the 12z gfs during this time period as previous runs. They really need to get this model tweaked and fixed. Run to run changes are to be expected but this is just terrible. Hopefully the ensembles are okay. Having the EPS on board is great though.
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The EPS is the only models I focus on to be honest. We need it to stay onboard.


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Chattownsnow said:
Those strong H’s the GFS keeps advertising past hr150 keep disappearing. No where near as cold on the 12z gfs during this time period as previous runs. They really need to get this model tweaked and fixed. Run to run changes are to be expected but this is just terrible. Hopefully the ensembles are okay. Having the EPS on board is great though.
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Gfs always overdoes those type of high pressures in the long range that’s why I believe it was said to avoid looking at those type of details that far out cause they will smooth out .. nothing about the Gfs looks terrible right now
 
gonna see a big phasing event here with the energy dropping from the NW but with the 50/50 low this could turn out well. The low over the plains will be replaced with the building HP and the gulf low blow up. 0 line draped across TN valley thru SC
 
KyloG said:
Here’s Atlanta’s composite versus Raleigh. Raleigh’s are the most recent bigger events since 96 and Atlanta’s is its top 10 snowfalls.

Top is Raleigh

Can see Atlanta has the NAO signature and deeper further south low practically over upstate NY.

Caveat this by saying it obviously can snow in other patterns.

View attachment 30481View attachment 30482
Click to expand...
If I get some time, I’d like to play around with some of my composite code and NOAA’s new 20CRv3 dataset to get a bigger composite of large events for a larger portion of central NC.
 
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