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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

Rain Cold said:
It's quasi-zonal. But you have a split stream. Cold high pressure sliding by up north and Disturbances in the southern jet to the south. It's honestly not a bad look and not too far away from a really good look. Will it trend well from here or revert back to the ridge of doom look?
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I’ve honestly only been looking at MSLP the last 10-12 days and it has been low pressure dominated which gives me pause. I’d love to see a 1040 drop down with a low pressure lull before I get too hopeful
 
Pattern will make an attempt to turn around ~Jan 25-30 or about the last week of January and this time potentially linger into February. This experimental MJO and extratropical forecast product from Dr Roundy at SUNY-Albany generally shows this. Notice it even picks up on the attenuation of the MJO once it exits the Maritime Continent

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html
 
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NoSnowATL said:
I don’t like it but I do like that it’s going as planned. At this rate we could be in 7/8 per Euro by end of the month or early Feb. bottom line if this happens we should have a 2 week window in February.


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GEFS really pushes it through 4/5 into 6.

We still have a consolidated trop/strat PV to deal with.


0B1B01D7-DBAA-4AEB-99C3-E77D980A62A5.gif
 
KyloG said:
GEFS really pushes it through 4/5 into 6.

We still have a consolidated trop/strat PV to deal with.


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Yea I hope it looks more like this. I don’t like that loop look.


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NoSnowATL said:
What’s your gut feeling going into February?


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Personally I think we see a sustained period of BN temps in the east/SE as we end Jan into Feb. I think we have a chance the last 5 weeks of met winter could be BN. Probably more hope than anything but that's how I feel. The consolidated trop PV does concern me though.
 
NoSnowATL said:
What’s your gut feeling going into February?


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I signed up here last Feb. So since then there has been 0 reasons to be optimistic. So I've earned myself a reputation for being negative. Which I have been most of the last decade with winter here. But if we ever get a decent pattern I can and will be optimistic.

But my gut feeling is we don't see that in Feb this year either. Many years in this hobby has taught me a hostile Pac doesnt give up much, and Atlantic help is not likely based on recent years. This pattern is as bad as it gets. I don't know if it'll snow or not. We may can time a trough swinging through. But I seriously doubt a large northern hemisphere pattern change is likely until March when it's too late.
 
If the long range Euro is anything to go by we may not have winter weather to talk about around here, but severe weather could make a roaring appearance by next weekend and early the following week. 12z Euro has what looks to be back to back severe weather events with one on the 11th-12th and another on the 13th-14th. Could be something to watch but way to far out there still.
 
BufordWX said:
If the long range Euro is anything to go by we may not have winter weather to talk about around here, but severe weather could make a roaring appearance by next weekend and early the following week. 12z Euro has what looks to be back to back severe weather events with one on the 11th-12th and another on the 13th-14th. Could be something to watch but way to far out there still.
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Yea that time period looks interesting. Someone in the SE might see a small outbreak or bigger.


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