Coldest air of the season looking to be a good bet: 
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
CMC looks a little interesting...
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Last edited:
Of the last 3 GEFS runs this run seems to have the most energy entering CA. We’ll see where it goes from there
12z
18z
12z
18z
looks like the players are slowly starting to show up. Nice trends
Ilovesnow28
Member
Ugh I hate when this happens... Right when I was trying to stay excited it ups and falls apart crap
0z CMC looks good tonight? Snow storm.
Thru 330 gefs mean. Also a lot of suppression on some of the members.. Nice look through..
Canadian
ATLwxfan
Member
Agreed. This run is what I was waiting for. Much better cold press but active Pacific.
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ATLwxfan
Member
For some reason the Canadian is awfully good at sniffing out southern snows.
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It was almost like the Canadian had a 1too2 punch. Second system right behind the first. But it falls apart. 
Canadian very close to something more.
The good ole reliable CMC.. just kidding, IF there's snow in East Texas from a wave after arctic front, it usually translates upstream for snow in the Tennessee Valley. I've seen models actually under perform in these cases.
olhausen
Member
I agree. I’m surprised someone from Tennessee posted this considering we get snow in March almost every other year it seems.
Six Mile Wx
Member
Jan 21
John1122
Member
Lately March and April have been my money months. I average close to 4 inches in March.
Idk why but this signal is giving me feb 2014 vibes
Six Mile Wx
Member
One of these Euro runs should go boom soon!
I enjoyed the prequel event to this as well, late Jan 2014. Something so satisfying about snow, however little, with temps in the lower 20s and teens.
GEFS is just deliciously insane.. can only hope it's right: 
Come to daddy
? ? 
It might not do it here but ????????????????? ?
End of the Euro is Nice.
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Mercy
John1122
Member
Everything is just a little too far East on the Euro. The western ridging would be better along the coast and into Alaska. The -NAO is east based too, this basically favors cutters or Miller Bs that give the Ohio Valley and Midwest cold and snowy weather.
hard to see reality through those 240 hour looking glass vibrations though....
John1122
Member
All the OP models agree on a colder look but achieve it differently. At 240 the Euro has a vastly different look at 500 vs the GFS in the Atlantic and Pacific. The Canadian has the best look in both the Pacific and Atlantic and that's why it produced a snowy outcome in the south.
When looking at the ENS, the GFS isn't supported at all by the GEFS and it snows a very different look at 500 vs the op at 240. GEFS actually has a west based -NAO and Pacific ridging in a good spot. Will see what support the Euro gets from the EPS, but until it's beaten, will have to go with it having the most likely outcome. The GEPS isn't quite in step in the Atlantic with it's OP either.
When looking at the ENS, the GFS isn't supported at all by the GEFS and it snows a very different look at 500 vs the op at 240. GEFS actually has a west based -NAO and Pacific ridging in a good spot. Will see what support the Euro gets from the EPS, but until it's beaten, will have to go with it having the most likely outcome. The GEPS isn't quite in step in the Atlantic with it's OP either.
I respectfully disagree. Is the western ridge ideally placed along the coast? No, but it’s still 10+ days out. We don’t want to keep losing that ridge eastward but In my honest opinion that is far from a Miller B or cutter look.
Through hr 246 the EPS looks way better.
00z
12z
00z
12z
John1122
Member
The East based NAO is the midwest track. You want those big reds over the Davis Strait instead of East of Greenland to get Miller A's. We can get it done with the Pacific too, but usually with +PNA and -EPO in the Gulf of Alaska.
Through 294
12z
12z
John1122
Member
You can see the look you get with that East based NAO.
East based -NAO normally favors above normal temps in the far East, but the western ridge inland is helping keep temps BN on the Euro. Since any -NAO in January is a unicorn, not terribly worried about it right now.
East based -NAO normally favors above normal temps in the far East, but the western ridge inland is helping keep temps BN on the Euro. Since any -NAO in January is a unicorn, not terribly worried about it right now.
Wait this isn’t the GEFS? Wow the euro showing this gives me way more confidence ... still can we get some operational support tomorrow please
John1122
Member
It would be nice to see it start showing up inside of 10 days on an operational model that isn't the Canadian. Pattern flips always seem to take forever to arrive and often seem to hang up, but we are slowly reeling this one in and there's little doubt the flip to cold is coming. Hopefully it has legs and we get 3-6 weeks of it like we did with the big flip in November.