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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

I have looked back through our records and we have many events in February after having mild Decembers and Januarys. Many have started around Jan 26th thru Feb 26th. A few events in March. March 1st 2009 was a good event during a warm pattern for triad area. I am sure we will get something as we generally always do even in a warm pattern.
 
GaWx said:
The GEFS has maintained its MJO 4/5 peak prediction at ~3 while the EPS has increased theirs from 2.5 yesterday to nearly 3 today. A peak of 3.0 would make it the 4th highest amp of 4/5 in winter on record (back to 1975). The 2 models are predicting a duration in 4/5 of 10-12 days ending ~1/17. Combine this MJO with a strong -PNA/+AO, a mainly +NAO, and a modest -AAM that is restarting today as well as a mainly +EPO and you have all of the makings for a strong torch to dominate the next 2 weeks. I expect to see several days in the SE with anomalies of +15+ within a period having most days AN. The entire 10-12 days will probably average close to 10+ AN, close to norms in mid March!

GEFS:
View attachment 29567

EPS:
View attachment 29568
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Looks like we need to pull for the EPS. GEFS has that loop look to it. EPS looks like it wants to swing around 7,8.


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metwannabe said:
Hmmm history tells me, with many areas socked it and temps in the mid - upper 40's currently, that it doesn't make it as far as projected. Just an old timer's guess
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Certainly losing any wedge here S wind and 54/54

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POWERSTROKE said:
I have looked back through our records and we have many events in February after having mild Decembers and Januarys. Many have started around Jan 26th thru Feb 26th. A few events in March. March 1st 2009 was a good event during a warm pattern for triad area. I am sure we will get something as we generally always do even in a warm pattern.
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You are correct. For example there is a reason why that in over 130 years of official records, CLT has never gone snowless for an entire winter, and there’s only around 6 or 7 that saw less than 1 inch.
 
SD said:
I'm sort of surprised this isn't getting more attention from the Tn/Al/NGa crowd. Steep lapse rates, strong upper level energy, dgz around h8/85, moisture in the dgz. Surface temps are kind of meh 35-42 but you should be able to build some nice convective clouds and scattered rain/snow showers and chances are they would be more snow than rain given the warm layer is so shallow

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Sure, you're not wrong. I am paying attention, but as the chances of accumulation are so low I'll wait until tomorrow to get more excited .
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
This pattern is atrocious with no signs of the cold going anywhere but the west on the 12Z GFS.
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gfs_T850a_seus_7.png

When you say "with no signs of cold air" 36 hours out is my sign of cold air
 
metwannabe said:
Now don't get me wrong there are some subtle signs @384 on the GEFS but it would still have a ways to go

View attachment 29584
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Nothing like a building -NAO on the GEFS. EPS somewhat agrees. Be nice to have for end of Jan into Feb, after the pacific is working for us too. This starts day 10-12 too.

For the naysayers (we know who you are)....yes, we've been head faked by GEFS before.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9111200.png
 
metwannabe said:
Now don't get me wrong there are some subtle signs @384 on the GEFS but it would still have a ways to go

View attachment 29584
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Looks better than the op but still not great, at least its got the scandy ridge. Maybe a few lucky wave breaks in the Atlantic could help us get more into a -nao. Sucks to see a pattern that close to being decent but instead we sit in +++++++anomalies

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KyloG said:
Nothing like a building -NAO on the GEFS. EPS somewhat agrees. Be nice to have for end of Jan into Feb, after the pacific is working for us too. This starts day 10-12 too.

For the naysayers (we know who you are)....yes, we've been head faked by GEFS before.
View attachment 29585
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It would be nice to have a trough right where that Aleutian ridge is on that map and get a +PNA back.
 
Gefs tries to completely get rid of the SE ridge then it says nvm
75eeae48a74ab528751dee612d125536.gif


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GaWx said:
It would be nice to have a trough right where that Aleutian ridge is on that map and get a +PNA back.
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Bummer that won't happen until end of the month...but if the Scandinavian ridge can establish into some atlantic blocking then maybe our patience will be worth it. Coincide.
 
SD said:
Gefs tries to completely get rid of the SE ridge then it says nvm
75eeae48a74ab528751dee612d125536.gif


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One of the most stable patterns in history setting up. Right in the heart of winter.
 
2006 was a prime example of how a Scandinavian ridge built into a sustained -NAO. To bad it was in a nina but still.



blocking.gifcompday.VBikktGFXi.gif
 
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